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The Heretic

Member Since 24 Dec 2004
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NFL 2014 Week 8 Picks

22 October 2014 - 05:16 PM

Despite an upset-filled Sunday, and incredible comebacks in the last seconds, I escaped Week 7 with an 11-4 record. :cheers:

One of these days I'll lay out the basic fundamentals to picking NFL games... but let's get on to Week 8!

Game of the Week

Chargers @ Broncos
It's rare that the Game of the Week falls on a Thursday, but there's not much else this weekend to qualify. The Broncos look more well-rounded than they did last year with that legitimate defense and a superior running game in Ball and Hillman. Chargers will be ready, but they might have been looking past the Chiefs last Sunday. It'll be close, but the Broncos will start to separate from the pack.
Broncos by 3

Eagles @ Cardinals
An even bigger Game of the Week, the Cardinals will get the biggest test of the season to date vs a completely evenly matched team with an entirely different philosophy in the Eagles. Cards have been winning despite all the injuries, but it'll be hard versus a well-rested offensive machine with a genius coach in Kelly.
Eagles by 3

Same of the Week

Seahawks @ Panthers
The Seahawks' problems are due to a weaker defensive line that used to rotate fresh hungry sackmeisters. They were eight last year in sacks, but cratered this year, all the way down to 27th. Things aren't going to improve all of sudden, but perhaps the suddenly-toothless Panthers (gave up 37 or more points in 4 of 5 games) are what the doctor ordered.
Seahawks by 3

Ravens @ Bengals
The Bengals have not been themselves the past 3 weeks, likely due to the disappearance of stud WR A.J. Green. If he's suited up, even as a decoy, the Ravens have to respect him, and that takes pressure off from embattled ginger QB Dalton. However, the Ravens have turned everything around and seem near unstoppable in recent weeks. Then again, they're not the same team on the road.
UPSET PICK: Bengals by 3

Bears @ Patriots
The Patriots rose from the dead 3 weeks ago and resumed their old position as Lord of the Manor. Da Bears, have shit their bed for three straight weeks, and are going through internal strife with WR Marshall blowing up at everyone. It's possible that this will turn around things, but not at Gillette Stadium. The Bears have the talent to score with anyone, but their lack of discipline will be their Achilles' heel vs Belichik.
Patriots by 9

Colts @ Steelers
The Colts are legitimate, having won five in a row after dropping the first two games and just destroyed the Bengals 27 to zip. The Steelers are a shadow of their former selves, and no magic will be enough versus QB Luck.
Colts by 6

Packers @ Saints
Two superstar quarterbacks, two opposite directions. QB Rodgers has his team firing on all cylinders while QB Brees has been misfiring every cylinder. That gag job last week doesn't inspire much confidence, even though the Saints are back at home. :nono:
Packers by 4

Lame of the Week

Lions @ Falcons
Unfortunately, both teams will have to play at 9:30 ET in London, throwing out their biorhythms out of whack. However, the Lions are completely legitimate, even without WR Calvin Johnson. The Falcons, OTOH, are not, because they have the same problem from last year – no depth to offset all those injuries. No defense to speak of. Meaning WR Golden Tate will explode once again.
Lions by 7

Rams @ Chiefs
Both teams are fresh off upset victories last week, but the Chiefs were actually a couple of plays away from being 4-1. The Rams were outgained by 200 yards, and thus their win was a fluke. As long the Chiefs benefit from a couple of turnovers, their offense will look much better than they really do, and best of all – they're at the Arrowhead. :deal:
Chiefs by 6

Texans @ Titans
Two choke-artists trying to out-gag each other to their next loss. What a world. :shakehead:
Texans by 3

Dolphins @ Jaguars
Despite getting off the Scneid last Sunday, the Jaguars are still a craptastic team – leading the league in interceptions thrown and giving up 29 sacks in 7 games. Too bad the Dolphins have an incredible defensive bookend in Cameron Wake and Oliver Vernon.
Dolphins by 7

Bills @ Jets
The Bills may have suffered a Pyrrhic victory last week over the Vikings – they lost both Rbs in Jackson & Spiller to serious injuries. Unless the Bills have a secret backup plan, the Jets will easily control QB Orton and take full advantage.
Jets by 3

Raiders @ Browns
It matters not that the Raiders are winless, because if QB Hoyer repeats that awful performance from last week vs the Jaguars, the Browns will lose again.
Browns by 3

Deadskins @ Cowboys
The league's best team with the best RB face off against QB Colt McCoy. Gee, what a difficult decision. For encore, perhaps the Deadskins will start resurrecting dead quarterbacks.
Cowboys by 14
:preach:

Shame of the Week :doh:

Vikings @ Buccaneers
Those young quarterbacks don't bode well for their franchises' future. The Buccaneers' inability to run will be enough for the Vikings to escape this Shame of the Week with a little face.
Vikings by 3

Last week: 11-4
Season to date: 70-35

NFL 2014 Week 7 Picks

15 October 2014 - 06:15 PM

11-3. :glug:

After four weeks of piddling picks at 59%, the past two weeks I am now picking at a cool 79%. Let's see if I can't keep the momentum going! :cheers:

Game(s) of the Week
49ers @ Broncos
QB Manning needs 3 more TDs to pass Favre for the all-time record, and he might get it this Sunday night. The 49ers are solid, with a powerhouse running offense and a dynamic QB, but their defense isn't what it once was. LB Willis is out. Expect a historic but boring victory for the Broncos.
Broncos by 9

Bengals @ Colts
The football gods were kind enough to bless us with two Games of the Week. :clap2: In this game, the Colts are out for revenge after getting smacked around last year 42-28. They're hot, having won 4 straight thanks to QB Luck. The Bengals have lost a lot of their Super Bowl look in the last two games, getting gashed on the ground by the Patriots and the Panthers. If the Colts keep running, they'll win.
Colts by 3

Thursday Game of the Week

Jets @ Patriots
In this corner, with 3 Super Bowl titles, Tom Brady! And in this corner... um. Second year QB Gino Smith? It's hard to pick the Butt-Fumbling Jets over a resurgent Patriots team at this point.
Patriots by 13

Same of the Week
Falcons @ Ravens
The Falcons are decent on offense and can score on anyone. Then again... with the 29th worst defense in the league, the Falcons picked a bad time to play an incredibly hot Ravens team. Did you see that 5 touchdown passes in 16 minutes? :freakout:
Ravens by 14

Seahawks @ Rams
Well, well, well. The Seahawks are mortal after all. But lucky for them, the Rams are 26th against the run, giving up 140 yards a game. And. That's. All. She. Wrote.
Seahawks by 11

Saints @ Lions
Detroit is getting it done on defense this season – first in total D, in passing D, in sacks, in scoring D, and third in run defense. The Saints will offer a tough test, but the Lions have already destroyed a great QB in Rodgers.
Lions by 4

Panthers @ Packers
The Packers are hot, winning 3 in a row, and after that fake spike play in the House of Marino last week, they're ready for anything. The Panthers undoubtedly will be no pushovers, but this game is at Lambeau Field.
Packers by 3

Chiefs @ Chargers
QB Rivers is building a case for 2014 MVP and the Chiefs' heavily decimated defense won't offer much resistance.
Chargers by 4

Giants @ Cowboys
The inconsistently unreliable Giants face off against a consistently disciplined Cowboys team? What's the world coming to? Is it 1992 all over again?
Cowboys by 7

Lame of the Week
Browns @ Jaguars
Bad news for the Browns: their great center Mack is gone for the year. Worse news for the Jaguars? It makes no difference at all.
Browns by 7

Vikings @ Bills
After getting bashed into a pulp last week, QB Bridgewater needs to show he can bounce back. But unfortunately for the Vikings, the Bills have a ferocious pass rush that might be even nastier than that of the Detroit Lions.
Bills by 3

Dolphins @ Bears
The Bears might have saved their season last week, beating the Falcons with smoke and mirrors. They'll need every trick in the playbook to beat the Dolphins again.
Bears by 3

Cardinals @ Raiders
No matter who gets hurt, the Cards reload and win. The Raiders OTOH keep losing no matter who plays for them.
Cards by 4

Texans @ Steelers
Sweet. Fancy. Moses! J.J. Watts is a legitimate MVP candidate, but he can't win without a decent offense that won't shit itself. The Steelers aren't what they used to be, but they'll resurrect some magic on Monday Night Football.
Steelers by 1

Shame of the Week

Titans @ Foreskins
Is it time to bench QB Cousins? If that's the case then expect an exciting game between craptacular QBs Colt McCoy and Whitehurst. :boring:
Foreskins by 1

Last week: 11-3
Season to date: 59-31

NFL 2014 Week 6 Picks

08 October 2014 - 06:34 PM

Now that's more like it. Winning 12-3 means all is right with the world. :clap2:

That was one of the most insane weeks I've ever seen – crazy comebacks on the road, blown leads, and the proverbial defeat snatched from the jaws of victory in overtime.

Game of the Week
Cowboys @ Seahawks
The Dallas Cowboys have the league's finest running game and a decent defense. But that's not enough vs a ferocious defense, in a place that hasn't lost more than a single game in 2 and half seasons. :eek3:
Seahawks by 7

Giants @ Eagles
A few weeks ago this matchup was clearly one-sided in Philadelphia's favor. Now, after blowing out 3 teams 105-53, the gods of football are now favoring the Giants. The Eagles haven't figured out how to run the ball consistently like they did last year, and there's no reason to suddenly think they will before they prove it. :hand:
Giants by 4

Thursday Game of the Week
Colts @ Texans
Enough with the blowouts on Thursday nights already! This matchup will be for first place in the AFC South division. It's trendy to go with the Texans at home, but the Colts should sneak out of Houston with a win, thanks to QB Luck.
Colts by 3

Same of the Week

Lions @ Vikings
When healthy, the Lions are completely legitimate. But they're crippled with injuries to WR Megatron & RB Bush, and here comes the Vikings with their rookie QB Bridgewater.
Vikings by 3

Patriots @ Bills
After that insane comeback win over the Lions, the Bills are hyped for their rivals from New England. They certainly have the right defensive line to push around the Patriots and make QB Brady feel his age, but they don't have a legitimate QB to scare Belichick into chickenshit calls on defense.
Patriots by 3

Panthers @ Bengals
The Bengals were widely proclaimed as serious Super Bowl contenders for 4 weeks. Then Sunday night happened. But they're back home, where they haven't lost in 2 years, and ready to resume Super Bowl fever. The Panthers don't have enough on offense to make a difference.
Bengals by 6

Lame of the Week

Ravens @ Bucanneers
Clearly, the Bucs are no pushovers. After stealing a game from the Steelers, they nearly shocked the Saints last Sunday. The Ravens are coming off a tough loss and will be looking for an excuse to take that bitter taste out of their mouths. :angry4:
Ravens by 6

Broncos @ Jets
On one hand, you got a QB that just cracked 500 career TDs. And OTOH, you got a team with two crappy options at QB. Another win for Denver, and another excuse for Rex Ryan. :rofl:
Broncos by 13

Steelers @ Browns
With 4 teams at .500 in the AFC North, every divisional game matters this year. After stealing the game in Week 1, the Browns have the Steelers' respect. Too bad the game is at Cleveland. After fumbling vs the Bucaneers, and barely eking by the Jaguars, the Steelers have no credibility. Yes, that spells another loss for Pittsburgh.
Browns by 2

Packers @ Miami
After back to back blowout wins for Packers, Cheesehead Nation can relax. But nobody knows how good the Dolphins are, and we will know for sure come Sunday night. If the Dolphins can rush QB Rodgers with only 4 defensive linemen and keep the rest in coverage, they'll steal the game. Plus QB Tannehill is mobile enough to bedevil the weak Packers' defense. Thus it'll be closer than the Vegas line.
Packers by 1

Chargers @ Raiders
The Raiders are 0-4 but they will benefit from the “new coach bump” where everyone plays twice as hard to impress the new coach. That may spell UPSET victory in most weeks, but not against the Chargers. They're FOR REAL, thanks to QB Rivers and the new scatback called Not-Sproles. :hugo:
Chargers by 6

Bears @ Falcons
The Bears' recent offensive troubles will find the perfect solution in the Falcons' 29th ranked defense, cuz the Falcons cannot rush the passer. That's music for QB Cutler, who'll have time to find his favorite WR in Jeffrey and Marshall all day long. Expect a high scoring shootout, regardless.
Bears by 4

Foreskins @ Cardinals
Not only were the Cardinals finally beaten last week, they also lost key players on defense and QB Stanton. If QB Palmer cannot go due to that degenerate nerve in his shoulder, then go with the Skins. Otherwise, the Cards will hold down the fort.
Cards by 3

40 Whiners @ Rams
The 40 Whiners have somewhat returned to their old ways, but they're still in the grips of discontent. The Rams will offer a stiff test on Monday Night, but it'll be over by halftime.
:behead:
40 Whiners by 11

Shame of the Week
Jaguars @ Titans
The Titans just choked their way into the record books, but the Jaguars are just inept on offense.
:doh:
Titans by 3

Last week: 12-3
Season to date: 47-28

NFL 2014 Week 5 Picks

01 October 2014 - 06:33 AM

6-6? Slouching towards Gomorrah, indeed. This should be an easier week to pick because a bunch of stronger teams are playing at home. :deal:

Thursday Game of the Week
Vikings @ Packers

Although the Vikings just dropped 41 on the sad Falcons, they need more than a few days to prep for a revived QB Rodgers and the Packers.
Packers by 6

Game of the Week
Cardinals @ Broncos

Even tho the Cards are undefeated, they're getting 8 points on the road vs the Broncos, who almost stole the game in Week 3 vs their Super Bowl rival, the Seahawks. Plus QB Palmer doesn't seem healthy enough to start, and the backup QB Stanton will not be able to keep up with Manning. :finger:
Broncos by 9

Bengals @ Patriots
The Patriots aren't ready for the glue factory, but their defense is subpar, and they can't run the ball, and QB Brady has lost his aura of invincibility. Go with the undefeated Bengals.
Bengals by 3

Same of the Week
Bears @ Panthers

After two straight blowout losses, can anyone really trust the Panthers' defense again? Nor can the Panthers run or pass. Once the Bears get going, they'll start looking for that panic button. :dcd:
Bears by 3

Buccaneers @ Saints
Yes, both teams are tied for DEAD LAST in the NFC South. Then again, both teams are only 1 game behind first place, cuz the NFC South sucks. Even tho the Saints have shit the bed so far this year, they're still decent on offense (third in total offense, third in passing and 10th in rushing). Moreover, they're back at home, where they look like a legitimate playoff contender. Bucs QB Glennon won't pull off magic two weeks in a row. :slap:
Saints by 10

Texans @ Cowboys
Run, Murray, Run.  Texans can't stop the run? See Cowboys win, win.
Cowboys by 6

Bills @ Lions
QB Manuel has completely shit himself this season - missing open WR, making bad throws. The Bills are playoff caliber, only if they have a solid QB. As for the Lions, Megatron is still hobbled, making their dynamic offense far more manageable. It will be much closer than the Vegas line.
Lions by 2

Ravens @ Colts
Potentially the most entertaining game of the week, this might turn into an old fashioned AFL styled shootout where the team with the ball last wins it. Both QBs are riding a hot streak, but the money is on Luck snatching victory from the clutches of Ravens.
Colts by 1

Chiefs @ 40 Whiners
The Chiefs have been respectable vs the Broncos, and blown out the Dolphins and the Patriots. Since the 40 whiners are fragile, the Chiefs will stay within spitting distance.
40 whiners by 1

Seahawks @ Foreskins
The Kirk Cousins express derailed last week, and sank to the bottom of the Potomac River. Moreover, the nasty boys from Seattle are coming off a bye, and will be too happy to bury the Skins another six feet deep in the muck. :rip:
Seahawks by 9

Lame of the Week
Rams @ Eagles

What in Sam Hill happened to Shady McCoy? He isn't averaging even a measly 3 yards a carry? Luckily for him, and the Eagles, that the Rams are 30th against the run. As long the Eagles run all day long, they'll cover and win. The Rams will be fresh, but they don't have anyone dynamic to match the Eagles' playmakers.
Eagles by 9

Falcons @ Giants
The Falcons have a decent offense. Too bad their defense is about as tough as a wet kleenex. And they're facing a team that just scored 75 points in two weeks? That spells another loss. :help:
Giants by 4

Steelers @ Jaguars
There's no reason to pick the Jaguars again this year. They're that bad. :glug:
Steelers by 6

Jets @ Chargers
Although the Chargers have been hot shit so far, the Jets are actually solid on defense (3rd in yards allowed, 2nd in rushing). Therefore they'll control the pace of the game, and limit the Chargers' big plays.
Chargers by 4

Shame of the Week
Browns @ Titans

For some Assbackward reason, Las Vegas has the Titans favored by 2.5, even though they got blown out in 3 losses in a row, whereas the Browns have been snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Browns by 4

Last week: 6-6
Season to date: 35-25

NFL 2014 Week 4 Picks

24 September 2014 - 06:38 PM

After two solid weeks of picking straight up, I tumbled to a below average 9-7 in Week 3. Billy Zima is on the other line. :freakout:

But we are all about results, not excuses. Bring on Week 4!

Thursday Game of the Week
Giants @ Deadskins
With QB Cousins at the helm, the Skins are completely legit. He's thrown for 677 yards and 5 strikes so far in two games. The Giants OTOH have an illegitimate QB at the helm. He just can't make any passes over 10 yards anymore. :Cry:
Skins by 9

Game of the Week

Eagles @ 40 Whiners
Logic says the comeback team should beat the choke artists. But logic never works in the NFL. QB Kaepernick will feast on that substandard Eagles defense and the Santa Clarita franchise will finally protect a lead.
40 Whiners by 4

Rest of the Week
Packers @ Bears
The Packers have defied expectations. So have the Bears. But both in opposite directions – QB Cutler looks like an All-Pro with those two great receivers, whereas QB Rodgers no longer can carry his team. :shakehead:
Bears by 3

Bills @ Texans
Two similar teams, in that they're both more talented on defense than on offense, but the Bills have the superior QB in Manuel. QB Fitzpatrick just plain sucks the sweat off donkey balls. Moreover, RB Foster isn't expected to suit up.
Bills by 4

Panthers @ Ravens
The Panthers are too injured to survive a smashmouth game with the bullies from Baltimore. Their RB corps is depleted, and plus QB Newton isn't completely healed.
Ravens by 6

Saints @ Cowboys
This game will not be a classic high-scoring shootout, cuz QB Romo isn't healthy and QB Brees hasn't clicked on offense this season. But the Saints are back on the road, and they cannot control the Cowboys' offensive threats. However, it all could come down to a Romocoaster styled interception. Or Not. :noidea:
Cowboys by 1

Patriots @ Chiefs
The Patriots are no longer the offensive powerhouse of the yesteryear. Is QB Brady losing his golden touch? Plus the Chiefs are actually legitimate on defense, and have excellent pass rushers in LBs Hali and Houston. Expect another close game in Arrowhead.
Patriots by 1

Lame of the Week
Titans @ Colts
The Titans are getting worse every week, and they just lost QB Locker to a wrist injury. And the Colts will be back at .500 come Sunday night. :clap2:
Colts by 13

Lions @ Jets
The Jets coulda shoulda been 3-0 if not for a couple of plays. But the NFL never rewards coulda shoulda woulda excuses. Plus the Jets' secondary don't even have a snowball's chance in hell of covering Megatron. :rofl:
Lions by 11

Dolphins @ Raiders
We apologize to the British for suffering through another Shame of the Week game between two inferior teams. :doh:
PICK

Jaguars @ Chargers
The Jaguars might surprise people because they're finally starting QB Bortles. But he's still starting behind a shitty OL, and against a legitimate playoff contender in the Chargers.
Chargers by 11

Falcons @ Vikings
QB Bridgewater is starting for the first time vs the Falcons, and might have a decent game cuz that defense isn't much to write about. But can the Vikings keep up with that Falcons offensive machine? Even at home?
Falcons by 3

Shame of the Week

Buccaneers @ Steelers
The Buccaneers will make this closer than 56-14, but not enough to steal a win. They just plain suck.
Steelers by 13

Last week: 9-7
Season to date: 29-19