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The Heretic

Member Since 24 Dec 2004
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NFL 2014 Week 9 Picks

29 October 2014 - 06:24 PM

NFL 2014 Week 9 Picks

Week 8 was a tale of two halves. What seemed like a great start with 9-1 in the early games ended in a resounding thud with 1-4. :slap:

Then again. The NFL stands for Not For Long. Every hot streak ends in a cold slump towards Gomorrah.

The first half of the NFL season is over, and we now know who's legitimate and who's a phony. This week I will incorporate Vegas lines, to heighten the stakes. :deal:

Game of the Year

Broncos @ Patriots (+3.5)
The Patriots are rounding into playoff form, but so are the Broncos. Patriots have outscored their last 4 opponents 158-87, while the Broncos went 149-75. But the Broncos have played playoff teams with excellent defenses (49ers, chargers, and Cardinals). Plus QB Manning has had 10 days to prepare for Coach Belichick, and that should be enough for a win.
Broncos by 1

Game of the Week

Cardinals @ Cowboys (-3.5)
Despite choking last Monday night, the Cowboys are still legit. Yes, the Cardinals' record at 6-1 is mighty impressive, but who did they beat on the road besides the Giants and Raiders? As long they remember they have the best OL in the league and RB Murray, the Cowboys will bounce back strong. Even against a truly fearsome Cardinals team that's finally found its stride.
Cowboys by 3

Thursday Game of the Week
Saints @ Panthers (+1.5)
Yes, the Saints redeemed themselves last Sunday night – but then again, that was in the Superdome and this game is in Carolina. The Saints are winless on the road, and they got outscored by 27. Expect QB Brees to turn the ball over again.
Carolina by 4

Same of the Week

Buccaneers @ Browns (-6.5)
Here comes QB Hoyer, up against the Buccaneers' 30th ranked pass defense! Yes, the Buccaneers did upset the Steelers, but that is quickly becoming more and more of a fluke with each loss. Lay the points.
Browns by 7

Eagles @ Texans (+1.5)
The Eagles certainly aren't as good as everyone thinks, myself included, but Houston is even worse than anyone thought. Fitzpatrick is a fraud at QB, so expect the Eagles to put 9 defenders in the box versus RB Foster.
Eagles by 7

Jets @ Chiefs (-10.5)
No matter what happened last week with that stinkbomb vs Buffalo, the Jets are still 5th against the run in the league. That spells a close game, although I expect Coach Reid and QB Smith to edge past the Jets. Take the points.
Chiefs by 6

Jaguars @ Bengals (-11.5)
The Bengals aren't back to their Super Bowl hype levels, but the Jaguars QB Bortles slumped. Most importantly – the Bengals haven't lost at home yet, not since 2012, and they've blown out 3 of 4 opponents with 121-78. Lay the points.
Bengals by 12

Chargers @ Dolphins (+1.5)
It's always an iffy bet to pick the team that's traveling 3000 miles after playing in a divisional game. But luckily for the Chargers and for us, they have a couple of extra days of rest. Moreover, the Dolphins are not a consistent team – and they haven't beaten anyone legitimate since Week 1. Plus after this Sunday, the Dolphins will have to face 3 playoff teams in a row. :faint:
Chargers by 4

Rams @ 49ers (-10.5)
After the Rams upset the Seahawks, they're back to their craptastic ways in rolling over to the Chiefs. And here come the 40 Whiners, fresh off bye week, and much healthier. It'll be a low scoring game, cuz Coach Fisher will have his guys ready. Take the points.
40 Whiners by 7

Raiders @ Seahawks (-16.5)
Yes, the Seahawks are in a mid-season slump, but they broke through last week vs Carolina. No, they're not the same tough bastards from last year, and that's why the Vegas line is way too high. Take the points.
Seahawks by 11

Sunday Night Football
Ravens @ Steelers (pick)
Both teams are 5-3, but the Steelers' offensive eruption last Sunday was more of an anomaly than anything. The Steelers are nothing close to a high scoring team, given the previous 7 weeks. Thus, the Ravens will steal this in the end.
Ravens by 1

Monday Night Football
Colts @ Giants (+3.5)
Despite being almost blown out vs the Steelers, the Colts nearly came back and just ran out of time. Yes, the Giants are undefeated at home, 3-0, but they're still completely out of whack. QB Luck must be loving that 25th ranked pass defense of the Giants.
Colts by 6

Shame of the Week

Foreskins @ Vikings (-1.5)
Who would've thunk it? Colt McCoy now owns Texas! The trend here is that whenever a shitty team plays their absolute best game versus a divisional rival , expect them to shit the bed next week.
Vikings by 3

Last Week: 10-5
Season to Date: 80-40

NBA 2014-15 Season predictions

28 October 2014 - 05:35 AM

Another season brings forth another bunch of narratives to drown in or float until a timely rescue boat of logicians and degenerate gamblers happen by.

Eastern Conference (playoff teams only)

1. Chicago Bulls
Luckily for Chicago fans, and Derrick Rose himself, the FIBA World Cup was a great step towards regaining that old MVP form. Free agent Pau Gasol replaces the vastly overrated and overpaid Carlos Boozer - tho not a tough mofo, he's a true seven footer who will add scoring and size up front next to Joakim Noah. Expect 55 to 60 plus wins, if Rose stays healthy throughout.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers
LBJ and Uncle Drew and K-Love are already believers of Coach Blatt's system that creates space and open look with cuts and ball movement. I don't foresee a clumsy beginning like the 9-8 start of the Miami Heat in 2010-11, but there will be growing pains. Coach Blatt is legitimate, but the NBA learning curve is quite steep. :hand:

3. Toronto Raptors
No longer surprising anyone this year, the young nucleus with DeRozan & Lowry will continue to mature.

4. Washington Wizards
Just like the Raptors, the Wizards are young and surprising. Spearheaded by their dynamic backcourt in Wall and Beal, plus a powerful frontcourt, they can take another leap from playoff-level to contender-level.

5. Miami Heat
Bosh will return to his salad days at Toronto, but wiser and more skilled. Wade will continue to show flashes of his old self, but less and less often.

6. Brooklyn Nets
New coach Lionel Hollins will try to right the sinking ship, but unless Deron Williams regains his old form, this team will not even match last season's brief turnaround.

7. Charlotte Bobcats/Hornets
Al Jefferson and friends will crack 40 wins and qualify for the playoffs, but not much else.

8. Indiana Pacers
Indeed, they lost their two top scorers in Paul George (horrific injury) and "Born Ready" Stephenson (free agency), but the Eastern conference is quite weak, and nobody else qualifies. Hawks? Knicks? Puh-leez. :finger:

Western Conference

1. San Antonio Spurs
Yes, Virginia, it is a dynasty going strong 15 years and counting. Expect another 50-plus wins and deep playoff run, if not necessarily a repeat.

2. Los Angeles Clippers
A rough preseason (rebounding kinks) will be a forgotten memory if Griffin takes the last step to MVP candidacy. If OKC or San Antonio suffer a down season, the Clippers can step in and steal the title.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder
If and only if Durant and Westbrook and Ibaka are healthy during the postseason...

4. Golden State Warriors
Expect new coach Kerr to infuse offensive creativity with the best shooters in the league and maintian defensive integrity.

5. Portland Trailblazers
Another surprise, but I can't expect them to fly under the radar again this year.

6. Dallas Mavericks
The two Chandlers will add fresh blood on offense and defense, but it's just too bad that Dirk Nowitzki is no longer in his prime.

7. Houston Rockets
Yes, they got weaker with free agent defections, but reserve big Kostas Papanikolaou might help off the bench.

8. Memphis Grizzlies
2 years ago, the Grizz were on the verge of title contention. Then they began that slouch towards Gommorah...  :doh:

NFL 2014 Week 8 Picks

22 October 2014 - 05:16 PM

Despite an upset-filled Sunday, and incredible comebacks in the last seconds, I escaped Week 7 with an 11-4 record. :cheers:

One of these days I'll lay out the basic fundamentals to picking NFL games... but let's get on to Week 8!

Game of the Week

Chargers @ Broncos
It's rare that the Game of the Week falls on a Thursday, but there's not much else this weekend to qualify. The Broncos look more well-rounded than they did last year with that legitimate defense and a superior running game in Ball and Hillman. Chargers will be ready, but they might have been looking past the Chiefs last Sunday. It'll be close, but the Broncos will start to separate from the pack.
Broncos by 3

Eagles @ Cardinals
An even bigger Game of the Week, the Cardinals will get the biggest test of the season to date vs a completely evenly matched team with an entirely different philosophy in the Eagles. Cards have been winning despite all the injuries, but it'll be hard versus a well-rested offensive machine with a genius coach in Kelly.
Eagles by 3

Same of the Week

Seahawks @ Panthers
The Seahawks' problems are due to a weaker defensive line that used to rotate fresh hungry sackmeisters. They were eight last year in sacks, but cratered this year, all the way down to 27th. Things aren't going to improve all of sudden, but perhaps the suddenly-toothless Panthers (gave up 37 or more points in 4 of 5 games) are what the doctor ordered.
Seahawks by 3

Ravens @ Bengals
The Bengals have not been themselves the past 3 weeks, likely due to the disappearance of stud WR A.J. Green. If he's suited up, even as a decoy, the Ravens have to respect him, and that takes pressure off from embattled ginger QB Dalton. However, the Ravens have turned everything around and seem near unstoppable in recent weeks. Then again, they're not the same team on the road.
UPSET PICK: Bengals by 3

Bears @ Patriots
The Patriots rose from the dead 3 weeks ago and resumed their old position as Lord of the Manor. Da Bears, have shit their bed for three straight weeks, and are going through internal strife with WR Marshall blowing up at everyone. It's possible that this will turn around things, but not at Gillette Stadium. The Bears have the talent to score with anyone, but their lack of discipline will be their Achilles' heel vs Belichik.
Patriots by 9

Colts @ Steelers
The Colts are legitimate, having won five in a row after dropping the first two games and just destroyed the Bengals 27 to zip. The Steelers are a shadow of their former selves, and no magic will be enough versus QB Luck.
Colts by 6

Packers @ Saints
Two superstar quarterbacks, two opposite directions. QB Rodgers has his team firing on all cylinders while QB Brees has been misfiring every cylinder. That gag job last week doesn't inspire much confidence, even though the Saints are back at home. :nono:
Packers by 4

Lame of the Week

Lions @ Falcons
Unfortunately, both teams will have to play at 9:30 ET in London, throwing out their biorhythms out of whack. However, the Lions are completely legitimate, even without WR Calvin Johnson. The Falcons, OTOH, are not, because they have the same problem from last year – no depth to offset all those injuries. No defense to speak of. Meaning WR Golden Tate will explode once again.
Lions by 7

Rams @ Chiefs
Both teams are fresh off upset victories last week, but the Chiefs were actually a couple of plays away from being 4-1. The Rams were outgained by 200 yards, and thus their win was a fluke. As long the Chiefs benefit from a couple of turnovers, their offense will look much better than they really do, and best of all – they're at the Arrowhead. :deal:
Chiefs by 6

Texans @ Titans
Two choke-artists trying to out-gag each other to their next loss. What a world. :shakehead:
Texans by 3

Dolphins @ Jaguars
Despite getting off the Scneid last Sunday, the Jaguars are still a craptastic team – leading the league in interceptions thrown and giving up 29 sacks in 7 games. Too bad the Dolphins have an incredible defensive bookend in Cameron Wake and Oliver Vernon.
Dolphins by 7

Bills @ Jets
The Bills may have suffered a Pyrrhic victory last week over the Vikings – they lost both Rbs in Jackson & Spiller to serious injuries. Unless the Bills have a secret backup plan, the Jets will easily control QB Orton and take full advantage.
Jets by 3

Raiders @ Browns
It matters not that the Raiders are winless, because if QB Hoyer repeats that awful performance from last week vs the Jaguars, the Browns will lose again.
Browns by 3

Deadskins @ Cowboys
The league's best team with the best RB face off against QB Colt McCoy. Gee, what a difficult decision. For encore, perhaps the Deadskins will start resurrecting dead quarterbacks.
Cowboys by 14

Shame of the Week :doh:

Vikings @ Buccaneers
Those young quarterbacks don't bode well for their franchises' future. The Buccaneers' inability to run will be enough for the Vikings to escape this Shame of the Week with a little face.
Vikings by 3

Last week: 11-4
Season to date: 70-35

NFL 2014 Week 7 Picks

15 October 2014 - 06:15 PM

11-3. :glug:

After four weeks of piddling picks at 59%, the past two weeks I am now picking at a cool 79%. Let's see if I can't keep the momentum going! :cheers:

Game(s) of the Week
49ers @ Broncos
QB Manning needs 3 more TDs to pass Favre for the all-time record, and he might get it this Sunday night. The 49ers are solid, with a powerhouse running offense and a dynamic QB, but their defense isn't what it once was. LB Willis is out. Expect a historic but boring victory for the Broncos.
Broncos by 9

Bengals @ Colts
The football gods were kind enough to bless us with two Games of the Week. :clap2: In this game, the Colts are out for revenge after getting smacked around last year 42-28. They're hot, having won 4 straight thanks to QB Luck. The Bengals have lost a lot of their Super Bowl look in the last two games, getting gashed on the ground by the Patriots and the Panthers. If the Colts keep running, they'll win.
Colts by 3

Thursday Game of the Week

Jets @ Patriots
In this corner, with 3 Super Bowl titles, Tom Brady! And in this corner... um. Second year QB Gino Smith? It's hard to pick the Butt-Fumbling Jets over a resurgent Patriots team at this point.
Patriots by 13

Same of the Week
Falcons @ Ravens
The Falcons are decent on offense and can score on anyone. Then again... with the 29th worst defense in the league, the Falcons picked a bad time to play an incredibly hot Ravens team. Did you see that 5 touchdown passes in 16 minutes? :freakout:
Ravens by 14

Seahawks @ Rams
Well, well, well. The Seahawks are mortal after all. But lucky for them, the Rams are 26th against the run, giving up 140 yards a game. And. That's. All. She. Wrote.
Seahawks by 11

Saints @ Lions
Detroit is getting it done on defense this season – first in total D, in passing D, in sacks, in scoring D, and third in run defense. The Saints will offer a tough test, but the Lions have already destroyed a great QB in Rodgers.
Lions by 4

Panthers @ Packers
The Packers are hot, winning 3 in a row, and after that fake spike play in the House of Marino last week, they're ready for anything. The Panthers undoubtedly will be no pushovers, but this game is at Lambeau Field.
Packers by 3

Chiefs @ Chargers
QB Rivers is building a case for 2014 MVP and the Chiefs' heavily decimated defense won't offer much resistance.
Chargers by 4

Giants @ Cowboys
The inconsistently unreliable Giants face off against a consistently disciplined Cowboys team? What's the world coming to? Is it 1992 all over again?
Cowboys by 7

Lame of the Week
Browns @ Jaguars
Bad news for the Browns: their great center Mack is gone for the year. Worse news for the Jaguars? It makes no difference at all.
Browns by 7

Vikings @ Bills
After getting bashed into a pulp last week, QB Bridgewater needs to show he can bounce back. But unfortunately for the Vikings, the Bills have a ferocious pass rush that might be even nastier than that of the Detroit Lions.
Bills by 3

Dolphins @ Bears
The Bears might have saved their season last week, beating the Falcons with smoke and mirrors. They'll need every trick in the playbook to beat the Dolphins again.
Bears by 3

Cardinals @ Raiders
No matter who gets hurt, the Cards reload and win. The Raiders OTOH keep losing no matter who plays for them.
Cards by 4

Texans @ Steelers
Sweet. Fancy. Moses! J.J. Watts is a legitimate MVP candidate, but he can't win without a decent offense that won't shit itself. The Steelers aren't what they used to be, but they'll resurrect some magic on Monday Night Football.
Steelers by 1

Shame of the Week

Titans @ Foreskins
Is it time to bench QB Cousins? If that's the case then expect an exciting game between craptacular QBs Colt McCoy and Whitehurst. :boring:
Foreskins by 1

Last week: 11-3
Season to date: 59-31

NFL 2014 Week 6 Picks

08 October 2014 - 06:34 PM

Now that's more like it. Winning 12-3 means all is right with the world. :clap2:

That was one of the most insane weeks I've ever seen – crazy comebacks on the road, blown leads, and the proverbial defeat snatched from the jaws of victory in overtime.

Game of the Week
Cowboys @ Seahawks
The Dallas Cowboys have the league's finest running game and a decent defense. But that's not enough vs a ferocious defense, in a place that hasn't lost more than a single game in 2 and half seasons. :eek3:
Seahawks by 7

Giants @ Eagles
A few weeks ago this matchup was clearly one-sided in Philadelphia's favor. Now, after blowing out 3 teams 105-53, the gods of football are now favoring the Giants. The Eagles haven't figured out how to run the ball consistently like they did last year, and there's no reason to suddenly think they will before they prove it. :hand:
Giants by 4

Thursday Game of the Week
Colts @ Texans
Enough with the blowouts on Thursday nights already! This matchup will be for first place in the AFC South division. It's trendy to go with the Texans at home, but the Colts should sneak out of Houston with a win, thanks to QB Luck.
Colts by 3

Same of the Week

Lions @ Vikings
When healthy, the Lions are completely legitimate. But they're crippled with injuries to WR Megatron & RB Bush, and here comes the Vikings with their rookie QB Bridgewater.
Vikings by 3

Patriots @ Bills
After that insane comeback win over the Lions, the Bills are hyped for their rivals from New England. They certainly have the right defensive line to push around the Patriots and make QB Brady feel his age, but they don't have a legitimate QB to scare Belichick into chickenshit calls on defense.
Patriots by 3

Panthers @ Bengals
The Bengals were widely proclaimed as serious Super Bowl contenders for 4 weeks. Then Sunday night happened. But they're back home, where they haven't lost in 2 years, and ready to resume Super Bowl fever. The Panthers don't have enough on offense to make a difference.
Bengals by 6

Lame of the Week

Ravens @ Bucanneers
Clearly, the Bucs are no pushovers. After stealing a game from the Steelers, they nearly shocked the Saints last Sunday. The Ravens are coming off a tough loss and will be looking for an excuse to take that bitter taste out of their mouths. :angry4:
Ravens by 6

Broncos @ Jets
On one hand, you got a QB that just cracked 500 career TDs. And OTOH, you got a team with two crappy options at QB. Another win for Denver, and another excuse for Rex Ryan. :rofl:
Broncos by 13

Steelers @ Browns
With 4 teams at .500 in the AFC North, every divisional game matters this year. After stealing the game in Week 1, the Browns have the Steelers' respect. Too bad the game is at Cleveland. After fumbling vs the Bucaneers, and barely eking by the Jaguars, the Steelers have no credibility. Yes, that spells another loss for Pittsburgh.
Browns by 2

Packers @ Miami
After back to back blowout wins for Packers, Cheesehead Nation can relax. But nobody knows how good the Dolphins are, and we will know for sure come Sunday night. If the Dolphins can rush QB Rodgers with only 4 defensive linemen and keep the rest in coverage, they'll steal the game. Plus QB Tannehill is mobile enough to bedevil the weak Packers' defense. Thus it'll be closer than the Vegas line.
Packers by 1

Chargers @ Raiders
The Raiders are 0-4 but they will benefit from the “new coach bump” where everyone plays twice as hard to impress the new coach. That may spell UPSET victory in most weeks, but not against the Chargers. They're FOR REAL, thanks to QB Rivers and the new scatback called Not-Sproles. :hugo:
Chargers by 6

Bears @ Falcons
The Bears' recent offensive troubles will find the perfect solution in the Falcons' 29th ranked defense, cuz the Falcons cannot rush the passer. That's music for QB Cutler, who'll have time to find his favorite WR in Jeffrey and Marshall all day long. Expect a high scoring shootout, regardless.
Bears by 4

Foreskins @ Cardinals
Not only were the Cardinals finally beaten last week, they also lost key players on defense and QB Stanton. If QB Palmer cannot go due to that degenerate nerve in his shoulder, then go with the Skins. Otherwise, the Cards will hold down the fort.
Cards by 3

40 Whiners @ Rams
The 40 Whiners have somewhat returned to their old ways, but they're still in the grips of discontent. The Rams will offer a stiff test on Monday Night, but it'll be over by halftime.
40 Whiners by 11

Shame of the Week
Jaguars @ Titans
The Titans just choked their way into the record books, but the Jaguars are just inept on offense.
Titans by 3

Last week: 12-3
Season to date: 47-28