Godot

The second round of the playoffs has gotten ahead of me much in the same way as the first round did!

To recap:

in the East:
Ottawa put a scare into the Rangers and forced game 7 only to fall short. The Caps pulled off a huge upset of the Bruins (this is probably the first time in NHL history where the previous two Finalists lost in the first round). Philly embarrassed the Pens and the Devils snuck past the Panthers.

in the West:
L.A. pulled off a massive upset of the Canucks while the Preds pulled off a lesser upset of the Red Wings. Mike Smith stonewalled the Coyotes past the Blackhawks and the Blues made short order of the Sharks. This is a small mercy for Sharks fans as they can now get on with the rest of their lives rather than waiting another month for the inevitable collapse.


Going forward into Round 2:
(Despite each series already being two games in, I'm still going to call as I saw it before the series started)

Eastern Division
Rangers vs. Capitals  - Rangers are the stronger team, although the Caps may be playing better as the underdog. Rangers in 6.

Flyers vs. Devils  - The Flyers laid a pretty serious beat down on the Pens in Round 1, they may not have as easy a time of it against a more seasoned goalie in Brodeur but I think they are the stronger team.


Western Division
Blues vs. Kings  - On paper I would give it to the Blues. Unfortunately, with a number of injuries piling up, they're pretty thin on the ice. The Kings are looking very solid out there and and Quick is playing hot. I expect them to ride him into the Conference Final, but my call would have been for the Blues in 5. Down 2-0, I think the Kings may sweep it.

Coyotes vs. Predators  - The Predators are a strong team and have done well this season while the Coyotes limped into the playoffs, only clinching the third seed due to the retarded NHL ranking system. The Coyotes play a very disciplined, defensive brand of hockey and Mike Smith has been unstoppable. Shots on goal show that Phoenix have been outshot in every single game by a double-digit margin in some cases. In teh long run this trend will bite them in the ass hard, but not this round. I would have thought the Preds would take it in 7, but I suspect that the Coyotes will do it in 5.

Better late than never, eh?

davidm and I have been talking hockey in chat since the playoffs started and we both discussed who we thought would advance. As surprising as how a few of the series have been played thus far, the biggest surprise has been how intense most of the games have been. Things tend to ramp up the closer you get to the Finals, but at this rate they'll all be sucking wind by the third round!

Rather than go into any sort of lengthy discussion explaining my picks this round, I'm just going to state them, warts and all.

Eastern Division

Rangers vs. Senators
Bruins vs. Capitals
Panthers vs. Devils
Penguins vs. Flyers (yeah, right)

Western Division
Canucks vs. Kings
Blues vs. Sharks
Coyotes vs. Blackhawks ()
Predators vs. Red Wings (sorry Dave!)


Although I don't have a clear favorite to carry the Cup, I expect it will be Nashville or St. Louis out of the West and New York or New Jersey out of the East.

Anybody else have any predictions?

Aside from the Olympic tournament, the best hockey of the year kicks off tonight with the opening of the 2010 playoffs. While we won't find out which team gets to lift Lord Stanley's Cup until June, there's still plenty of time to speculate.

The degree of parity in the league this year was amazing! Sure there's 2-3 teams that were head and shoulders above the rest during the regular season but all that changes in the post-season. For the first time in the 3-point era, seven of the eight playoff matchups weren't decided until the final game of the season.

Here are my picks for Round 1:

Eastern Conference
Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens
The Caps won the President's Trophy for being the top ranked team in the regular season. Montreal clinched a playoff spot on the last day of the regular season in an shootout loss to Toronto of all teams. Unless they ride a hot goalie, the Habs won't be able to withstand the offensive juggernaut that is the Capitals.
Caps in 5.

New Jersey Devils vs. Philadelphia Flyers
The Devils finished a strong campaign in second place in the conference. Philly squeaked into the playoffs on the last day with a win over the Rangers. Philly has underperformed in all aspects of the game in what has been a disappointing season. The Devils have been a defence-first hockey team for as long as most can remember, but they added a serious scoring threat at the trade deadline in Kovalchuk. No contest.
Devils in 5.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins
The Bruins fell off from the league-leading pace they set last year and the Sabres surprised everybody in winning their division through the emergence of Ryan Miller. Miller will win the Vezina this year and will see the Sabres through to the next round at least.
Sabres in 6.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators
The Pens are the defending champs. The Sens have a history of choking in the playoffs. Easy choice.
Pens in 5.

Western Conference
San Jose Sharks vs. Colorado Avalanche
The Sharks are a perennial regular season powerhouse that won first place in the West when Chicago lost their final game. Colorado is a very young team that is playing so far above pre-season expectations. That they are even in the playoffs is a huge success. The Sharks have a long history of choking in the playoffs and a shaky record in the post-Olympic period shows they aren't invulnerable. While I don't think they'll go very far into the playoffs, I think their depth of experience will push them past Colorado easily.
Sharks in 5.

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Nashville Predators
I'm a heavily biased Hawks fan. No contest here.
Hawks in 4.

Vancouver Canucks vs. Los Angeles Kings
The Canucks have won their division something like three out of four years in a row. The Kings are much like the Avalanche in that simply making the playoffs is a huge success for their season. I thnk the Kings are outmatched in both skill and experience, but it should be a good series.
Canucks in 6.

Phoenix Coyotes vs. Detroit Red Wings
Despite the offseason shenanigans surrounding their bankruptcy and attempted sale, the Coyotes have put together a stellar season largely on the shoulders of Bryzgalov. Coming off two consecutive Finals appearances (with 1 Championship), the Wings had a lot of injuries early on keeping them far below where they were expected to be in the standings. A late season surge saw them vault well into the thick of things. The outcome of this series will hinge on goaltending. If Bryzgalov plays average, the Wings will walk all over him. If he's superhuman, the higher-ranked Coyotes will take the upset.
Wings in 6.

All research begins with an idea. Whether the idea arose as a result  from previous research, from a suggestion/direction provided by  someone else or a “eureka”-like intuitive leap is ultimately   irrelevant: the idea is the starting point for any endeavor. Since  ideas that begin their life sufficiently robust to commence research  are rare enough to be nonexistent, the next logical step is to  further refine the idea. In some cases, the initial idea may be too  narrow and will require fleshing out. In others, it will be necessary  to pare away some of the extraneous details to reveal the kernel  hidden within.

The first step towards undertaking your research or refining your question/idea begins with a search of the available literature. Whether your ultimate goal is publishing in an academic journal, writing a paper for school or even simply increasing your personal knowledge, you really should take the time to seek out the extant body of literature on your pet subject to find out what's already been done. After all, if somebody else had the same idea as you and has already gone to the trouble of writing up their findings, there may be very little need for you to do the same. When such a scenario arises, your task is far from finished. You can read that work  and see whether your idea was explored to your satisfaction.If it was and you disagree with the conclusions drawn or consider the work done to be sloppy, you can refocus your idea as a response to that other work. Perhaps the results of that research suitably explored your idea but raise further questions that you feel need to be addressed. This new direction becomes the focus for your investigations. Once again, you would see what the extant literature has to say (if anything) on your refined topic, ad nauseum until you have a very focused and attainable thesis. Yes, this process can very quite laborious and is frequently tedious but I feel that due diligence at an early stage results in less strife later on and also reduces the likelihood of you looking like an idiot for not knowing the topic material sufficiently well.

The next step is to consolidate your sources of information that you will use as evidence/support in your research.Some of these will have been identified in the earlier process of refining your topic, but chances are you will be looking further afield for more data. To be effective, it will help if you create a search strategy to both keep you on track as well as provide an audit trail of where you've gone. This way, not only can you b sure not to duplicate your previous steps, but you can methodically show to others how you arrived at your end point (if need be). Keyword searches are the most obvious starting point. However, where you employ your searches will often be determined by the topic, target audience and quality of information you seek. University libraries have access to a great many print and electronic journals, not to mention a plethora of books geared for an academic audience. Public civic libraries also have excellent access to books and some journals and magazines that aren't geared for an academic audience.Simple web searches can yield many results, the calibre of which is sometimes dubious. When using sources that cite their references, sometime sit can help to follow those up directly. Not only will you get a better feel for what the original actually said, it too can point you down other search avenues.

Working in an academic setting, I admit bias in my preferences for sources but that largely applies to work-related activities. If all you are hoping to generate is a working knowledge of a topic to discuss with your peers, there's nothing wrong with using Wikipedia, a magazine/newspaper article and a blog post or three. If you're hoping for a more exhaustive delve into a topic, you'll probably be best served by even a brief look at the academic literature.
In contrast to how I've worked in the past, this year I have been introduced to using an evidence table as a tool to assist in the consolidation of all the material I've read for a given project. Rather than having to rely on memory to recall the pertinent details of a given source, the evidence table allows me to record publication details, keywords, main findings and my own comments in a spreadsheet which I can retrieve at my own convenience.

So far, we started by identifying a topic of interest.and then refined the topic through a series of progressions. Based on our topic, target audience and desired depth of discussion, we then identified areas where we should commence our literature search. Then, with the appropriate sources identified and obtained, we set to the task of reading our source material and consolidating our notes into an evidence table.

So what should be the next obvious step? Writing? No.

I strongly recommend a period of reflection to think about what you've read thus far and to attempt to assimilate and internalise the knowledge thus gained. Even then, you should take some time to consider the structure of the paper you intend to write. What do you intend to say? What tone should you use? Given all that you've read and the tentative conclusions you have reached thus far, what points do you need to make and in what order do you need to make them? Once the general structure of your paper has taken shape in your mind, only then should you move on to putting your thoughts to paper.
How you choose to write is best determined through trial and error. Maybe you prefer writing free-form (much like how I've written this) only to have to go back later to edit and insert headings etc. Maybe you prefer starting out with a more rigid framework to assist you in hitting all the points you wish to make. Both are perfectly valid techniques and both can be used to good effect in the appropriate setting. All you can do is play around and find out what works best for you. Any need you may have for further revisions of your paper will be determined by the purpose of your writing.

Given the time of year, I thought it a fitting thread topic. Resolutions abound on January 1st, not least of which often includes something to the effect of "I vow never to do that again." Many thoughts also lead people to thinking about finally getting in shape or perhaps simply trying to change the shape they currently possess. The trick is to stay on that bandwagon rather than fall off as most people do until next January. To best do so requires a little bit of forethought and planning rather than going all out. I'm going to put down some of my own goals to perhaps help other people think about their own goals and perhaps create a bit of a buddy system wherein we can encourage one another to get there. If nothing else, I'm putting this down to commit myself to it somewhere other than in my head.

The shortest route to failure when undertaking a new exercise regime is to go too hard too fast without any sort of clear guideline as to what you wish to accomplish. So we need to establish some goals, both short term and longer term ones. We also need to determine where we currently stand so as to best judge how realistic our goals are. We also need to break down our goals into discrete segments with realistic and achievable time lines (read: the lower the level of overall fitness, the more conservative the goals and steps should be). Failing to do this won't necessarily prevent you from reaching your goals at all, but it will slow you down in getting there.

To start, let's describe me: 32 year old male, 5'9" 205lbs. I played football in high school and in a men's league when I was in Australia. I also was involved in downhill skiing racer training in my youth. I've also been a regular user of a weight room (with varying degrees of success) since I was 15. I love the weights and lifting heavy things and tend to skimp out on the cardio side. I can manage a 5km run in 30 minutes, but that's about my limit for now. I do walk well in excess of 10km daily during the week, with the number dipping closer to 5km on the weekends. I would describe myself as not strong enough, not quite big enough and a bit too pudgy. The reality is that I'm one of the strongest people I know, I'm plenty big enough and I could certainly manage to lose about 25lbs.

With a background established and current situation put forth, what comes next is establishing goals. The obvious long term goal here is better fitness, but measuring that is about as simple as establishing world peace; a noble goal but ultimately a meaningless proposition. The truth is that your goals will change over time as you achieve your previous goals and as your life changes and interests change. Establish new ones that suit your changing priorities and time demands/constraints, or at the very least set the goal of not backsliding into previous bad habits! For my purposes, I will break down my goals into three main categories, each of which will be broken down into more specific incremental goals along with a (hopefully realistic) time frame for achieving them. I should also hasten to mention that the focus should be on establishing and realising realistic (albeit challenging) goals, not on achieving them by the set time at all costs simply for the purpose of ticking the box on your checklist. Kinda defeats the purpose that way.

The categories will be fitness, strength and personal goals:

Fitness
Overall goal: I want to run 10km. I'm not particularly interested in doing so in a race setting (although I might change my mind to do just that), but definitely on a treadmill or around an indoor track as part of my training. As I said above,I can already run 5km provided I'm mentally prepared to do so. Doubling the distance to 10km can be accomplished in a couple of different methods, some may be more achievable than others. For me, I wouldn't consider my goal reached unless I was able to run continuously for 10km; I would view stopping for a breather or even walking for a short distance during the run as a failure to reach my goal. I could complete the requisite distance, but the important part for me is keeping it continuous.
How am I going to do it? Since my focus is on keeping the run continuous, I intend to gradually increase the distance I run until I can tolerate the full 10km. I will run 5km twice a week until I feel comfortable enough in doing so to want to increase my distance. Picking an equally arbitrary number, I will increase my distance by 500m. Depending on how well I'm managing with that, I will continue to increase my distance every second or third week. If at any point I find that I'm pushing myself too hard, I can just as easily back down and scale back my time line by a few weeks. Starting with my existing base of 5km and incrementally increasing my distance by 500m every two weeks, even allowing for a few setbacks I can conceivably be running 10km by June. Of course, given any conflict between this goal and any others I have, or even any Real Life intrusions, this time line may be somewhat affected. However, provided I put in the effort to achieve this goal, there is no reason why I cannot accomplish it. Hell, it would take a concerted non-effort for me not to accomplish it before the end of the calendar year.

Strength
Despite knowing I'm plenty strong enough as it is, I have plenty of goals to reach here if only to prove to myself how idiotically stubborn I am. Most of the goals in this category will be for me to establish new personal bests (PB) in various lifts. I've been using the same basic workout routine (in terms of which muscle groups fall on which days) for practically a decade but it hasn't been working well enough to my satisfaction of late and I'm currently in the process of rejigging things to get me back on track. As such, I'm not intending to provide any time component to any of these goals. The number (weight and/or reps at a given weight) will be the goal itself. I realise this kinda contradicts what I said at the outset, but I hardly claim to be a rational person.
If you are new to weight training or looking for decent goals to set for yourself, the old standbys are the ability to perform a chin-up (or multiples thereof), a body-weight squat and a body-weight bench press. If you aren't there yet, you can do it if you approach the problem incrementally and systematically. Once there, you simply need to reset your goals to aim for higher weights or (more prudently) more reps at that given weight. I was able to do these things a few years back, so I've decided to go chase after far more absurd goals. Right now, I'm merely typing them out to put them out there and to act as impetus for getting me there. Follow my lead if you want to try and out-compete me for idiot of the year (how's that for a goal!) or maybe just laugh at me. I know I will be.
Incline bench press:
current PB: 225lbs/6-8 reps. Goal(s): a) 275lbs/1 rep 225lbs/10 reps.
Decline bench press:
current PB: 300lbs/3 reps. Goal: 315lbs/1 rep.
Chin-ups:
I can currently manage about 6 reps on my first set before I bail. I want to get back to a point where I can do at least 10 reps on my first set. Once I can do that, then it's time to start doing weighted chin-ups.
Military press:
current PB: 175lbs/3 reps. Goal: realistically I want to do (at least)1 rep at bodyweight. I've done it before, I will do it again.
Squat:
current PB: 315/6 reps. Goal: I want to do 1 rep at 405lbs all the way to the floor, not the half-rep I did once upon a time to make it my all-time PB.
Leg press:
current PB: last time I pushed it was about 810lbs/8 reps. Goal: 1000lbs ideally for a full set of 10 reps.
Deadlift:
current PB: 275lbs/5 reps. Goal(s): a)match my all-time of 395lbs/1 rep. b)405lbs/1 rep.
Cleans:
current PB: 155lbs/10 reps. Goal: 185lbs/1 rep, and then 225lbs/1 rep. Given the gym I'm in, this may be a pipe dream unless I get a personal trainer to help me with it.

Most of these are quite realistic, especially as they are at or near weights I've lifted previously. As I said above, I avoided any time lines for achieving these goals given that I'm in progress of changing my regimen to best suit my situation. I also need to find that place in my head where I can go to make this happen. "The flesh is willing but the spirit is weak" comes to mind. If I can strengthen up the spirit this won't be a problem at all.

Personal Goals
Goals under this heading can be any number of things that can contribute to your general well-being. No matter how silly it may seem, actually taking the time to list out and set aside a block of time to accomplish something or work towards a given goal can help your peace of mind and overall satisfaction with life.

When I was finishing up my undergrad degree, I really got into indoor rock climbing and bouldering. My uni had an excellent facility for both climbing and bouldering and I went climbing at least once a week and was bouldering 3-4 times a week, usually between classes. Of course, I haven't even put my shoes on in over five years. My goal here is a rather modest one: I wish to take the opportunity to go climbing/bouldering once a month.

Another common area most people want to change at this time of year relates to body composition. Most folks look at the themselves in the mirror and don't necessarily like what they see. Or perhaps they don't like the number on the scale when they stand on it. Like with any other goal, the most important thing to do is to analyse the situation: What is your current weight? What is your desired weight? Is this realistic and achievable? How do we break this down into the appropriate discrete steps?
For me, I currently tip the scale at 205lbs, but would like to see myself in the low-180's. I will be using this merely as an admittedly crude guideline and nothing more. As the vast majority of my goals require adding a good deal more muscle mass, simply going by the number on a scale is a recipe for failure and disappointment. If I wish to drop my total mass by about 20-25lbs, I would expect to decrease my fat mass by an amount closer to 30-35lbs while increasing my lean mass by 5-10lbs. Feasible and realistic, provided I go about it smartly. When I was playing football in Oz, I dropped nearly 35lbs in six months of training, two two hour sessions per week plus a game on Saturdays. At the time I didn't overly pay attention to what I ate (no more than I usually do) and drank like a fish too often for my own good. Since I am approaching this as a problem requiring a solution and not a mountain to overcome, I'm already most of the way to getting there. Two things will be key for me (or anybody attempting something similar): 1) acknowledge that this is a longer term goal, susceptible to fluctuations and setbacks and one that will take about 4-6 weeks before I notice much change, and 2) work to maintain a negative energy balance. What do I mean by that? Well let me tell you! Simply put, you should be aiming to maintain a neutral energy balance most of the time where energy in (through food and beverages) = energy out (through exercise and you know, being alive). If this equation is imbalanced where in > out then we find ourselves packing it on. When we find ourselves where in < out, we tend to b losing weight. I realise that this is a far more simplified version of what is actually going on and while how your body truly responds to these changes in environment is extraordinary, it goes far beyond what is needed here. Suffice it to say, this equation will cut it.
So how do we alter the balance of the equation in our favour? We can (and will) do it by manipulatng both sides of the equation. For the energy in side, make smarter food choices. Portion control, restricting sweets such as sodas and candies, reducing the use of cooking methods such as frying foods in favour of steaming, etc. You know, pretty much the same public health messages that we all are aware of and are blissfully content to ignore most of the time. For the most part, it isn't rocket science; it just requires the execution of whatever common sense you have. If you like the degree of control, you certainly can go so far as to count calories, but you don't have to. I've done it in the past and it certainly does work, but it requires a lot of effort and you can become a tad obsessed by it. The simple way is to scale back a bit on the most obvious things you're doing and just wait and see if there's any net change. If not, tweak it a bit further. Trial and error is the name of the game.
The energy out side of the equation is most easily manipulated through increasing your activity level. It doesn't always have to be perceived as exercise either. If you have young children, play with them for an extra twenty minutes when you get home from work. Not only will it burn some extra calories, but you will all feel better for having done so rather than sitting on your couch like a lump. Make the effort to go for a walk rather than watching the telly (or sitting at the damn computer!) all night. If you're more partial to social and community events, go dancing or play in a rec league for whatever sport you enjoy. Play in a competitive league if you're temperamentally more suited to that. Take the stairs instead of the elevator, or maybe park at the far end of the gym parking lot and walk in rather than spend ten minutes driving in circles to get oh-so-much-closer to the door.
The key here is to manipulate both sides of the equation to double your impact. Some rough numbers to think on: 1lb of body fat contains 4086 calories. Therefore, to lose 1lb of fat, you need to expend 4086 more calories than you consume. A daunting number to be sure, but let's break it down to more manageable figures. If we are aiming for the low rate of 1lb per week, this correlates to an energy deficit of approximately 580 calories per day. Depending on the duration, intensity and type of activity performed, you can quite easily achieve this without even having to adjust your intake. For me, 30 minutes on a treadmill can net between 500-600 calories expended. If you're just starting out, a more reasonable expectation is to perform a variety of lower impact and intensity activities over the course of the day (yardwork counts!). These little changes over the course of a day can accumulate to 200 additional calories expended. If you also decided to forego your daily double-cap-extra-frothy-grande-latte with sprinkles in favour of a simple cup of black coffee, that should put you over the top.
To bring this rather long segue back towards myself, working from an expected weight loss in the 20-30lb range and a very modest rate of weight loss of 1lb per week, that would have me achieving my goal in late July/early August. With the intensity of my cardio picking up over this period of time, the rate of weight loss should also scale up proportionately. All of this is independent of any dietary changes I will be making. Rather than setting myself a tighter timeline that I may not be able to adhere to, I would rather be happy to reach this goal earlier than conservatively predicted. You might think of this as gaming the system, and I wouldn't be able to disagree. My game, my rules. So there.

Another concept you should probably be somewhat familiar with by now is Body Mass Index (BMI). The BMI is little more than a diagnostic tool that is only directly useful in an epidemiological fashion. It creates a ratio between your weight and height that is used to classify you as either underweight, normal weight, overweight, or obese. These classifications have distinct relations to morbidity/mortality and incidence/prevalence with respect to a variety of health-related illnesses. This is plotted on a graph in a J-curve such that those in the normal weight category at are the lowest risk of developing weight-related diseases. The J-curve graph which underlies much of this is a population level statistic. It measures the relative risk of a subset of a given population and not what your particular rate of risk is. My BMI as calculated places me in the obese category. As a member of the subset of "obese" in this population, I am at a greater risk of developing a weight-related disease. However, my actual risk is more greatly affected by my genetic history and my lifestyle. Despite being heavier, I may actually be at a much lower risk level than a given individual in the "normal" subset. All in all, although your risk as an individual will not be greatly affected by your BMI, as a member of the population, it still would be a prudent idea for you to aim to get your BMI within the appropriate range. Just remember that it is a tool that you can use to your advantage in reaching your goals, but like everything else I have tried to say here, it is not a end unto itself.

I realise the inherent symbolism of starting things anew with the changing of the year. Clean slate and all that: I totally get it. I still think it's complete rubbish. Do it because it's the right thing to do with your life, not because it is now 2009 by some equally arbitrary measure as anything else out there. Bah humbug to me then, but good luck to anyone else willing to make a change.