2016 NFL Week 3 Picks
After two weeks, it seems that the preseason favorites like the Seahawks, Packers, and the Cardinals are not as good as we thought, and the class of the NFL mostly reside in the AFC (Broncos, Patriots, Steelers).
Going 13-3 last week means I have nowhere else to go but down, right? Then again, we know nothing, especially when it comes to the NFL. Tyche, the goddess of Luck is at her most powerful when we are at our most confident.
Thursday Game of the Week
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (+2.5)
The Patriots are now down to their third string QB, Brisett, but will that even slow them down? Even up against a terrific defense in the Texans, led by the incomparable Watt and company? QB Osweiler remains unproven, and the Pats will confuse him to no end. He does not have the vision for accurate passing required to beat the Pats’ schemes. While the Patriots are underdogs at home for the first time in near forever, but they manage to win 9 of 12 of those games under coach Belichick.
New England by 4
Game of the Week
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
The Bengals finally return home, but they’re now facing the defending Super Bowl champs, and their world-class defense with that topnotch blitz package. Hopefully the Bengals’ own defense will terrorize QB Siemian and control the game.
Cincinnati by 1
Tame of the Week
Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills (+5)
Although the Cardinals had a long flight, they are facing a weakened Bills team with shitty defense and uncertainty on offense after firing their OC. All the extra days will not change anything in their favor. The Cardinals seemed to rediscover their mojo last week, and should keep on steamrolling the rest of the way by going long early and often.
Arizona by 9
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (-1.5)
The Raiders aren’t meeting expectations – their defense is incapable of stopping anyone. I expect the Titans to run the ball down their soft pliable middle and control the game with clutch throws from QB Mariota who can both run and pass well.
Tennessee by 6
Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars (even)
After falling flat on their faces last week in San Diego, the Jaguars need to redeem themselves, rediscover their offensive form from last year. While the Ravens are 2-0, they haven’t really beaten anybody good so far. They had so much trouble covering WR Robinson last year. But in a tight game, go with QB Flacco to WR Wallace deep.
Baltimore by 3
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-7)
Yes, everybody knows the Packers have fallen short of expectations, and QB Rodgers doesn’t look like his terrifying self, having fallen below 100 in passer rating for the last 14 games. It looks like WR Driver, Jennings, and Nelson no longer can win in isolation and get separation. But they’re finally home and should force the Lions into a high scoring shootout. It will be Last Man Standing.
Green Bay by 3
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers (-7)
No rest for the wicked. After surviving a tough NFC North tilt with the Packers, the Vikings have to face the class of the NFC in the Panthers without their lead back Peterson, out with a knee injury. The key matchup is the Panthers’ offense versus the Vikings’ defense. QB Newton has to step up and succeed where QB Rodgers failed, and force the Vikings’ ultra aggressive defense to play contain. They won’t.
Carolina by 4
Washington Ethnic Slurs @ New York Giants (-4.5)
The Giants have the perfect opportunity to seize control of the NFC East, and bury the Ethnic Slurs six foot deep. QB Cousins hasn’t looked like his 2015 self at all this year, and the rebuilt Giants’ defense will not give him a chance. Their corners are deep and savvy enough to neutralize the Slurs’ receiving corps. Moreover, will the Slurs even let their high priced cornerback Norman cover WR Beckham?
New York by 4
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5)
The Rams have yet to score a touchdown, and this will be 3000 miles flight for a morning game. The Buccaneers will be playing in front of their fans for the first time this year. The score will be close, cuz the Rams have a stubborn defense, but the Buccaneers will pull it off. QB Winston is still angry over that Delhomme he pulled last week, and the Rams do not have the required secondary to slow him down.
Tampa Bay by 4
San Francisco Forty Whiners @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)
The Seahawks have only one touchdown in two games cuz they can neither pass-block nor run block. But the Whiners have the immortal Gabbert at QB and the Hawks are at home, at the Century Link where they become a different monster. Even with a one-legged QB Wilson.
Seattle by 3
New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Both teams are similar that they have tough as nails defenses, powerful offensive lines, and QBs that don’t turn the ball over. But the Jets aren’t as good on the road, and it’s always tough to match the Chiefs’ energy at Arrowhead.
Kansas City by 1
San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts (-3)
The Colts are still in hibernation, whereas the Chargers picked themselves up last week and destroyed the Jaguars. I expect a shootout, but the Colts are incapable of rushing the QB, or field enough healthy defensive backs, allowing QB Rivers time to decimate their secondary. QB Luck will have to come back against three excellent Chargers cornerbacks: Flowers, Verrett, and Hayward.
San Diego by 3
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5)
The Eagles have surpassed all expectations in the first two games – thanks to rookie QB Wentz, and a stubborn defense. But they’re facing a powerful offense in the Steelers, who are fond of disguising their blitz, and that’s a death sentence for rookie quarterbacks. Moreover, there’s nobody on the Eagles that can cover WR Brown in the slightest.
Pittsburgh by 4
Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys (-5)
The Bears looked godawful, no thanks to injuries – DT Goldman, QB Cutler, LB Trevathan, etc. The Cowboys OTOH have withstood their own injury problems nicely thanks to QB Prescott. They will force-feed RB Elliott & Morris the ball all game long, then shock the Bears with play-action passing to WR Bryant.
Dallas by 7
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (+3)
Every divisional tilt is exciting, and even more so when one of them has their backs to the wall. In a high scoring shootout, I expect QB Brees to beat QB Ryan any day of the week and twice on Mondays. Too bad the Falcons have the best 53 players in this matchup.
Atlanta by 6
Shame of the Week
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins (-10)
Like the Patriots, the Browns are now down to their third string QB in Kessler. Unlike the Patriots, the Browns are a godawful team, and with a shitty QB in Kessler, they have no chance against the Dolphins’ stout defense in their home opener. QB Tannehill has enough weapons at hand to blow this game wide open.
Miami by 9
Last Week: 13-3
Season to Date: 24-8