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NFL 2011 Week 6 Picks

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After a horrible 5-8, I can’t type this up fast enough to forget week 5.

Game(s) of the Week

49ers @ Lions

Lions have a bloodthirsty DL, but they’re still susceptible to strong runners & solid screen plays. Thus 49ers will abuse this weakness with RB Gore & Hunter, both tough inside and excellent receivers in the flat. That will slow down the Lions’ overly aggressive pass-rush, and TE Vernon Davis will find open zones. The Lions’ WR Megatron was held to 1 TD last week. He will be out for blood this week, and given QB Stafford’s amazing chemistry with him, he will beast. Their combination loosens up open lanes for RB Best on delays & draws. 49ers are solid on D, but they have NOBODY that can stop Megatron. Nobody else in the league can either.

Lions by 7

Dallas @ Patriots

QB Romo should unleash WR Bryant on the horrendous Patriots secondary, the absolute worst in the league. Dallas will score easily but can they outscore the Pats’ mighty offensive machine? Pats have the #1 offense, and QB Brady & WR Welker are about to rewrite the record books. The Cowboys’ D is strong, but too aggressive for their own good. Expect a 80 point shootout!

Patriots by 4

Rest of the Week

Panthers @ Falcons

Panthers are truly exciting with Cam launching bombs for Smith, or DeAngelo running hard between the tackles. But they haven’t learned to win yet – they must learn how to control the clock with their running game. Falling behind and scrambling behind Newton’s mighty arm makes for fun but a poor formula for wins. Atlanta will rush them with Abraham (if healthy) and their linebackers are fast enough to spy on Newton, but they also have to watch out for TE Shockey & Olsen. OTOH, Falcons haven’t run the ball well, but RB Turner might bust out this weekend. The Panthers are weak up front with 2 rookie DTs and 2 LBs out w injuries. Carolina must stop the run in order to force Ryan to win the game, but I doubt they will.

Falcons by 7

Jaguars @ Steelers

Jax rookie QB Gabbert can pick apart the Steelers’ shoddy secondary cuz he is solid with shotgun set and underneath throws. But the Steelers have a ferocious pass-rush, and while the Jags have a solid OL, they can’t stop Woodley & Timmons all game long. Steelers should play smashmouth ball with RB Moore & Mendenhall, cuz they cannot afford to dick around with the Jags with cute plays.

Steelers by 10

Eagles @ Redskins

RB McCoy is the Eagles’ most talented player. Forget everyone else. He should get 30-40 touches in the game. Forget the Andy Reid air show for one weekend. The Skins are stubborn on defense, but they do allow 4.3 yards per carry, and their screen package defense is too aggressive, so the Eagles should follow this simple script. Bootleg Vick and get 2 fat OL upfield and slip McCoy behind them on shovel passes or screens. On paper, the Eagles’ DL and secondary should be world-stoppers. The Skins’ OL has no answer for speedy pass rushers in Cole & Babin, but they’ll be dogged and determined, and should find open running lanes vs the Eagles’ speedy defense. Expect big day from RB Hightower. But Eagles are desperate down 1-4.

Eagles by 7

Bills @ Giants

Credit for being 4-1 should go to QB Fitzpatrick, who should be able to keep up with QB Eli if the game becomes a shootout. Fitz has no choice because the Giants have an awesome DL as any in the league. The Giants are aware that the Bills are soft up front vs the run, and may be tempted to run with RB Bradshaw, but the Bills are a quick scoring team & that will force the Giants to drop the running game early. Watch for SS Wilson to dominate on Bills D.

Bills by 7

Browns @ Raiders

After a very emotional game last week, with the sudden death of Al Davis, the Raiders are coming back home and will be riding the emotional wave of their fans. Browns lack strong receivers that can keep the Raiders’ D from trotting out 8 man fronts. Tho they’ve been weak vs the run, RB Hillis hasn’t been himself so far. Raiders will ride RB McFadden who will win the game single-handedly.

Raiders by 13

Texans @ Ravens

Texans will not have WR Johnson. That means RB Foster will inherit some of his touches, and has been rounding into form with 223 yards in the past 2 games. But he won’t be able to run easily on the Ravens’ D. At least he has the best OL in the league on his side. Ravens are very solid this year, and will be running on the Texans D since OLB Williams is out. Texans will be tough but they are missing their top 2 guys.

Ravens by 8

Saints @ Bucs

Brees has been almost unstoppable this year, despite missing his top WR Colston. Bucs’ front 7 won’t be able to handle Brees, RB Sproles, or Graham. Bucs haven’t found themselves this year: struggling with penalties, turnovers, and lack of offensive rhythm. Saints’ D will continue to befuddle and flummox the Bucs’ O.

Saints by 17

Vikings @ Bears

Bears have a solid D, but the Lions showed how to run on them. RB Peterson must be licking his chops, and he will be fed the ball early, continuously, and heavily. Bears must stop him, and may be geeked up after getting embarrassed on Monday night. Bears have the worst OL in the league, no question, and they will need every help in slowing down DE Jared Allen. They must ride RB Forte on stretch runs and screen passes, allow Allen to run by him. If Vikes play containment, they can stop the Bears.

Bears by 6

Dolphins @ Jets

SUCK FOR LUCK! SUCK FOR LUCK! SUCK FOR LUCK! (translation: Jets have no excuses this time)

Jets by 7

Lame of the week

Rams @ Packers

If the Packers lose to the Rams, they should get thrown out of the league.

Packers by 24

Colts @ Bengals

QB Painter has been solid lately, but the Colts haven’t put together a complete game yet. Bengals should throw easily on the Colts’ insipid secondary.

Bengals by 6

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9-3 baby! :cheers:

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Nicely done.

And in other news, fire sale in Denver! Lloyd has been traded to the Rams for a bag of used footballs. Six weeks in and they're already throwing in the towel on the season...

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