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NFL 2014 Week 17 Picks


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Posted (edited)

At last, the wild 2014 season has come to a close. And here's the secret to picking games in the final week of the year: when the top teams have their backs to the wall, they'll win. And pick the ones that will care more in the remaining games.

Last week, I went a mediocre 10-6, but any day above ground, or in this case, .500, is a good gambling day.

:glug:

Game(s) of the Week

Lions @ Packers (-7.5)

Should be a lock - the Packers at Lambeau Field against some team that had trouble vs a comatose team in Chicago? The Lions have been far more lucky than good this year, but luck can only take you so far, and especially against an all-time great in Rodgers at home.

Packers by 9

Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5)

The Falcons have turned their season around since Thanksgiving, and have been invincible against the NFC South all year. Better yet, the NFC South champion has never repeated. Then again, if QB Cam Newton can survive that horrific car accident, perhaps we are better off picking the Panthers.

Panthers by 4

Bengals @ Steelers (Sunday Night Football) (-2.5)

Homefield means zippo to the Steelers, and the Bengals have been decent on the road the past couple of months. But with the divisional title on the line, go with the better team. :brow:

Steelers by 3

Same of the Week

Chargers @ Chiefs (-2.5)

QB Rivers was absolutely clutch last Saturday. However, it's twice as tough to win on the road in hostile arenas two games in a row. The Chiefs still have a shot for the playoffs.

Chiefs by 2

Browns @ Ravens (-8.5)

The Ravens still have a shot at the second season - as long the Chargers lose as well. It matters not who the Browns line up under center - Johnny Football is a fake, and Hoyer has a bad shoulder.

Ravens by 9

Bills @ Patriots (-10.5)

The Patriots haven't lost at home in forever, but they already nailed homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, so there's nothing to play for. But Coach Belichick won't let his guys mail it in. But it's the Bills, a divisional rival with solid defense, so take the points regardless.

Patriots by 3

Raiders @ Broncos (-14)

The Broncos are in danger of falling out of a first round bye. Lose, and the Bengals win, the Broncos will have to play during the wild card weekend. The Raiders OTOH have turned it around in the last 5 weeks, but when the chips are down, go with the superior team. :deal:

Broncos by 11

Cardinals @ 40 Whiners (-4)

The Cardinals are a great team missing a legitimate quarterback. And the 40 Whiners are a great team missing chemistry. And that spells what? You tell me. :noidea:

40 Whiners by 3

Rams @ Seahawks (-13.5)

As long the Seahawks take this game, they'll have homefield throughout. For what it's worth, the Seahawks haven't forgotten the Rams' sheninagans from their previous matchup (fake punt, surprise kickoff, etc.) However, the line is just plain ridiculous. :doh:

Seahawks by 9

Lame of the Week

Cowboys @ Foreskins (+6.5)

Even though RGIII is back, the Skins have no chance against a Cowboys team that's firing on all cylinders & roaring full steam ahead to the playoffs.

Cowboys by 6

Colts @ Titans (+7.5)

After falling flat on their faces in Dallas, the Colts are chomping at the bit to take it out on someone else. Even though the Titans are just horrible, it's never a good idea to take the road favorite in a divisional game. :finger:

Colts by 6

Eagles @ Giants (-2.5)

The Giants are on a roll, although too late, whereas the Eagles have lost their collective will after shitting the bed last week. Gotham will be Catching it like Beckham! :cheers:

Giants by 3

Jaguars @ Texans (-9.5)

The Texans have an outside shot at the playoffs, and should be fired up no matter what, cuz JJ Watt will push them. In fact they've played over their heads with a practice squad QB and injuries to star players half the season. The Jaguars are just playing out the string - with zero incentive other than a high draft pick.

Texans by 8

Jets @ Dolphins (-5.5)

It's Coach Rex Ryan's final game, will the Jets win one for the gipper? The Dolphins OTOH are solid and will try everything to finish the year with a winning record.

Dolphins by 6

Bears @ Vikings (-6.5)

Really, nobody gives a shit. But the Vikings still do, unlike the Bears. Yes, that means QB Culter is back.

:banghead:

Vikings by 7

Shame of the Week

Saints @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

The Saints have zero incentive, other than just pride. The Buccaneers have played hard, but not with ability to compete. Go with the underdog.

Buccaneers by 3

Last Week: 10-6

Season to Date: 155-84

Edited by The Heretic
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Posted

FIRST!

I echo the Steelers call. Will continue reading and respond later.

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Posted

The fact that a Pittsburgh Steelers fan has made it to TGL is more impressive than any of their 6 Super Bowl championships.

:heh:

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Posted

Chargers over the Chiefs. I think they're the better team and can do more with their backs against the wall. Rivers is better than Smith and can make the big plays in what should be a tight game. Paper Tigers over the Steelers. Sorry, murrai. Its probably because they beat Denver but Marvin Lewis and his coaching staff exhibited some real craftiness with their game plan. Defense can still be leaky and the Steelers already trounced them but I see the Bengals growing some real teeth here.

RGIII over the Cowboys for the upset. Because why not? Ridiculous, improbable, but it will happen. Tis the season.

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Posted

Shame of the Week

Saints @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

The Saints have zero incentive, other than just pride. The Buccaneers have played hard, but not with ability to compete. Go with the underdog.

Buccaneers by 3

Are you kidding me?!?!?! The Saints are proven road warriors!!! They've won 3 in a row on the road!!! However, in the end, it looks like my prediction from a few weeks ago will come true. What was that prediction? You know. The one where I predicted that I'd pick the Saints to lose their last 3 games. Tampa Bay wins.

Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5)

The Falcons have turned their season around since Thanksgiving, and have been invincible against the NFC South all year. Better yet, the NFC South champion has never repeated. Then again, if QB Cam Newton can survive that horrific car accident, perhaps we are better off picking the Panthers.

Panthers by 4

The Falcons offense is better than is the Carolina defense. Other than those 2 ILBs, what does Carolina have on defense? Besides, why break the streak of division champs failing to win 2 years in a row? Atlanta wins.

I'm still thinking on a couple of other games.

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Posted

Chargers @ Chiefs (-2.5)

QB Rivers was absolutely clutch last Saturday. However, it's twice as tough to win on the road in hostile arenas two games in a row. The Chiefs still have a shot for the playoffs.

Chiefs by 2

I am inclined to agree for only one reason: I saw something earlier this week about Rivers having a bulging disc. Apparently, he has played with that problem for a few weeks now; however, that does not mean it has not gotten worse. Nonetheless, I'll have to say that San Diego wins for the sake of contrariness.

Bengals @ Steelers (Sunday Night Football) (-2.5)

Homefield means zippo to the Steelers, and the Bengals have been decent on the road the past couple of months. But with the divisional title on the line, go with the better team. :brow:

Steelers by 3

The Steelers defense is just too poor. Might be good enough to pull off another regular season win. And I still don't like Dalton. That makes this a tough call. Nonetheless, Cincinnati wins, because ... because ... because Jeremy Hill! What about Bell?, you ask. Uh, contrariness, I say. Contrariness.

I'll agree with the rest, despite the fact that I'd like to see a 4th string QB take down the 49ers. But that's hoping for too much.

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Posted

Chargers @ Chiefs (-2.5)

QB Rivers was absolutely clutch last Saturday. However, it's twice as tough to win on the road in hostile arenas two games in a row. The Chiefs still have a shot for the playoffs.

Chiefs by 2

I am inclined to agree for only one reason: I saw something earlier this week about Rivers having a bulging disc. Apparently, he has played with that problem for a few weeks now; however, that does not mean it has not gotten worse. Nonetheless, I'll have to say that San Diego wins for the sake of contrariness.

Looks like Alex Smith has a lacerated spleen and is likely out for this game. Chase Daniel, his replacement, has too little game experience to expect much of him. Reinforces a Chargers pick here.

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Posted (edited)

I read that Manzeil was placed on IR. Did he have a rookie season?

#581

Edited by maddog

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Posted

Looked to me like the Bucs could reasonably be accused of tanking in the second half. Whether they did or not, they have the first pick in the draft.

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Posted

I read that Manzeil was placed on IR. Did he have a rookie season?

Yes, the overrated, and overhyped Johnny Football did play a couple of games.

After going 12-4, my final season total is 167-88. :cheers:

The playoffs are finally here. I will post my picks on Wednesday at the latest.

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Posted

The Cowboys took my pick personally. Wow. Should be an exciting playoffs. I'm surprised the Chargers didn't pull through and I simply give up on the Bengals.

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