This site is supported by Nobility Studios.

2015 NFL Week 3 Picks


8 posts in this topic

Posted

Dagnabbit and Fackaroley. After taking two steps forward with a solid opening week at 10-6, I fell ass-backwards and went tits up with 6-10. :shakehead:

That clearly shows none of us can take anything for granted at any given Sunday. Super Bowl contender? You start 0-2 or worse. The capricious Goddess of Fortune must've laughed at my stubborn picking against the two greatest QBs of our generation in the same weekend. :banghead:

Regardless, onto Week 3!

Thursday Game of the Week

Washington Racial Insult @ New York Giants (-4.5)

Twice already, the Giants have choked away double-digits leads in the fourth quarter. Luckily for them the NFC East is a godforsaken, downright shitty division that probably will slouch towards Gomorrah the rest of the season. While the Ethnic Slurs have been decent, and actually lead the NFL in total defense, the Giants are far more desperate. :freakout1:

New York by 4

Game of the Week

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

There's nothing like a slobberknocker between two physical teams that hate each other. Yep, the Bengals did handily beat the same Raiders who turned around and stole the game from the Ravens in the next week. Moreover, the Bengals have owned the Ravens lately, 4 out of their last 5 matchups. However, the Bengals will be facing a desperate 0-2 team trying to get off the Schneid. It'll come down to the last play.

Cincinnati by 2 

Rest of the Week

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys (+2.5)

Cowboys fans, this is what a Pyrrhic victory looks like - win the battle, but lose the war. After losing All-Pro WR Bryant in Week 1, the Cowboys lost QB Romo to yet another clavicle fracture. The same one he busted in 2010, but then again, this is a vastly different Cowboys team, with more depth and greater cohesion. It's entirely likely they'll keep their heads above sea level for the next two months, given that the NFC East is pathetic. That said, the Falcons, with QB Ryan and WR Julio Jones, will force the Cowboys into a high scoring shootout they cannot afford.  :gun:

Atlanta by 4

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (+5)

Every Tom, Dick, and Harry picked the Colts to win the AFC this season. After all they did add veteran depth in WR Johnson, RB Gore, and LB Cole. But after gagging their way to 0-2, even Chuck Strong is throwing QB Luck under the bus. Luckily they're facing a shitty team in the Titans, whose rookie QB Mariota is fast realizing that he's in over his head. :swamped:

Indianapolis by 6

Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns (-4.5)

Both teams won last weekend behind their QBs, who are beginning to earn believers. Yes, QB Carr might be for real. However, the Raiders are historically weak the farther east they travel from the West Coast. But it's just too bad that the Browns are going back to their freshly concussed 36 year old journeyman in McCown over the more resourceful Johnny Football. And that'll be All. She. Wrote. :deal:

Oakland by 3

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots (-13.5)

Next up on the Patriots' hit list is everybody's hapless doormat, the Jaguars. And the Patriots are in Fuck You mode? No analysis needed.

New England by 11

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

It won't matter if QB Brees is healthy, because the Panthers' defense is quite stout. Moreover, there's nobody on the Saints' defense that can slow down Superman, aka QB Cam Newton, whatsoever, because they just proved that they couldn't stop rookie QB Winston. Despite all those offseason changes (trading away TE Graham and WR Stills to improve defense), that hasn't worked out. It's entirely possible that the Saints' season is over by October.

Carolina by 6

San Diego Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

If the Chargers were unable to stop RB Bernard last week, there's no way they'll be capable of stopping a rejuvenated RB Peterson. Expect QB Rivers to carve up that Vikings secondary and keep the game close, but QB Bridgewater will pull it out in the end.

Minnesota by 3

Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams (+1)

Classic offense vs. defense. While the Steelers are number one in offense, the Rams' defensive linemen Donald and Quinn will make a long afternoon for QB Rothlisberger. RB Bell is back, and he must have noticed how the Foreskins ran allover the Rams last week. Moreover, WR Brown has become nigh unstoppable, but it'll come down to whether the Steelers' OL can block the savage Rams DL. And if rookie RB Gurley is as advertised... :brow:

St. Louis by 3

San Francisco 40 Whiners @ Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

Since both teams are physical, it'll be close, but QB Palmer truly makes the Cards a legitimate playoff contender. And with two OL starters back in the lineup, the Cards are peaking right now.

Arizona by 6

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

Both teams were humbled last week after winning in Week 1. There's some disarray in Miami, because they're now discovering how much DT Suh likes to freelance. After facing Luck and Brady, the Bills will be happy to see QB Tannehill.

Buffalo by 3

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks (-14)

The Bears are starting QB Clausen? At Century Link? And the Seahawks are 0-2? Plus Kam Chancellor is back from holdout? 

:behead:

Seattle by 17

Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions (+2.5)

It is obviously true that QB Manning is no longer the Manning of Old (passer efficiency a lousy 74). He's been sacked 7 times already, but the Broncos are winning due to their opportunistic defense. They should feast on the Lions' turnovers and bail out Manning once again. QB Stafford is completely banged up, and will not last the season.

Denver by 6

Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

After a tough loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs have to regroup and travel to Green Bay and face another Hall of Fame QB who almost never loses at home. Although RB Lacy might not be healthy in time, it won't make much of a difference.

Green Bay by 6

Monday Night Game of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets (even)

The so-called genius Coach Kelly has overreached himself in trading away his best players for system guys. Yes, the Eagles were a machine in the pre-season, but then the regular season started, and it's been all downhill since then. In the NFL, the talent is far more important than some clever scheme. Always has been, always will. After dispatching the overrated Colts last Monday, the Jets are ready to embarrass another overrated team on Monday again. If QB Luck couldn't figure out that defense, neither will the immortal Sam Bradford.

New York by 6

Shame of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans (-6.5)

Yes, the Texans are struggling with the Hard Knocks curse, but there's no way the Buccaneers can block Unholy Terror J.J. Watt from cannibalizing rookie QB Winston.

Houston by 4

 

Last Week: 6-10

Season to date: 16-16

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

It won't matter if QB Brees is healthy, because the Panthers' defense is quite stout. Moreover, there's nobody on the Saints' defense that can slow down Superman, aka QB Cam Newton, whatsoever, because they just proved that they couldn't stop rookie QB Winston. Despite all those offseason changes (trading away TE Graham and WR Stills to improve defense), that hasn't worked out. It's entirely possible that the Saints' season is over by October.

Carolina by 6

The Saints defense would not be exceptionally bad if they had any defensive linemen. For that matter, rookie OLB Kikaha has been almost worthless; he has caused a couple of fumbles downfield, but he can't tackle, and if you can't tackle by the time you get to the pros, forget about it - because, with the CBA, teams don't have much practice time that can be devoted to tackling. Since the alleged d-line which the Saints have could not get any leverage against a depleted Arizona o-line in week 1, there is absolutely no reason to think they will be any better against the equally bad Carolina o-line. Carolina wins. And Brees should take a week off.

 

Let's see what contrarian picks are available this week.

Washington Racial Insult @ New York Giants (-4.5)

Twice already, the Giants have choked away double-digits leads in the fourth quarter. Luckily for them the NFC East is a godforsaken, downright shitty division that probably will slouch towards Gomorrah the rest of the season. While the Ethnic Slurs have been decent, and actually lead the NFL in total defense, the Giants are far more desperate. :freakout1:

New York by 4

Washington wins just because. Sure, Miami does not have much offense, and the Rams don't have a top-tier QB, but the Washington defense has been good. The only reason for going against the Redskins is the possibility that Beckham and Cruz will be on the field together; that could be good enough to overcome Eli playing as only Eli can.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams (+1)

Classic offense vs. defense. While the Steelers are number one in offense, the Rams' defensive linemen Donald and Quinn will make a long afternoon for QB Rothlisberger. RB Bell is back, and he must have noticed how the Foreskins ran allover the Rams last week. Moreover, WR Brown has become nigh unstoppable, but it'll come down to whether the Steelers' OL can block the savage Rams DL. And if rookie RB Gurley is as advertised... :brow:

St. Louis by 3

Why would I go with the Rams in consideration of their QB? Just because the Steelers defense is suspect? Okay, maybe that's sufficient reason. Even so, Pittsburgh wins.

 

San Diego Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

If the Chargers were unable to stop RB Bernard last week, there's no way they'll be capable of stopping a rejuvenated RB Peterson. Expect QB Rivers to carve up that Vikings secondary and keep the game close, but QB Bridgewater will pull it out in the end.

Minnesota by 3

But what if the Chargers dedicate the defense to stopping Peterson? Maybe Bridgewater can pull out a victory, but I'll say he doesn't; therefore, San Diego wins. Right. I'm not a Bridgewater fan, although I respect the Vikings coaches for realizing after week 1 that it is a Peterson team, not a Bridgewater team.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

The Saints defense would not be exceptionally bad if they had any defensive linemen. For that matter, rookie OLB Kikaha has been almost worthless; he has caused a couple of fumbles downfield, but he can't tackle, and if you can't tackle by the time you get to the pros, forget about it - because, with the CBA, teams don't have much practice time that can be devoted to tackling. Since the alleged d-line which the Saints have could not get any leverage against a depleted Arizona o-line in week 1, there is absolutely no reason to think they will be any better against the equally bad Carolina o-line. Carolina wins. And Brees should take a week off.

The line has fluctuated from Carolina -6.5 to pick due to Brees' uncertain status. At first the early report had him out for a few weeks, but now he's practiced on a limited scale, and claims to be playing. The Saints' coach Payton is being deliberately ambiguous, possibly to keep the Panthers guessing. Regardless of whether he starts or not, there's no chemistry or cohesion to the offense. But at least if Brees suits up, he will keep the Saints' offense closer than +6.5. Without him? Expect a shutout. 

:behead: 

 

Washington wins just because. Sure, Miami does not have much offense, and the Rams don't have a top-tier QB, but the Washington defense has been good. The only reason for going against the Redskins is the possibility that Beckham and Cruz will be on the field together; that could be good enough to overcome Eli playing as only Eli can.

 

Washington will have a decided advantage over the Giants' left tackle, rookie Flowers. The Skins' defense is pretty stout, a,d they can bring pressure off the edge with Kerrigan, as well as inside with Hatcher and Paea. QB Cousins has to avoid turnovers - he's blessed with a solid OL and a reliable running game. But there's something about superstar WR Beckham in primetime. :deal: 

 

Why would I go with the Rams in consideration of their QB? Just because the Steelers defense is suspect? Okay, maybe that's sufficient reason. Even so, Pittsburgh wins.

My Rams pick is decidedly the upset pick of the week, because most people are taking the Steelers. The Rams have been exposed last week that they're overly reliant on that amazing defensive line, because their aggressive nature forces their linebackers to make tough decisions, and that breaks containment. Moreover, Rothlisberger is a genius in those situations, cuz he will force the Rams to cover the great WR Brown over the middle. Now, the Rams will stop the Steelers' running game, but that'll make things worse cuz that will force Rothlisberger to throw more against the weaker link in the Rams' defense. At the very least, take the over. It'll be a high scoring shootout. 

 

But what if the Chargers dedicate the defense to stopping Peterson? Maybe Bridgewater can pull out a victory, but I'll say he doesn't; therefore, San Diego wins. Right. I'm not a Bridgewater fan, although I respect the Vikings coaches for realizing after week 1 that it is a Peterson team, not a Bridgewater team.

Two things will happen: the Chargers will shred that Vikings pass defense. and AP will run allover that Chargers' front 7. The Chargers' pass rush, plus a healthy Melvin Ingram, will challenge the Vikings' OL with speed. But the Vikings have a solid pass rush of their own, with Robison, Griffen, etc., and they'll exploit the leaky Charger OL. 

Edited by The Heretic
1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

... there's no chemistry or cohesion to the offense. But at least if Brees suits up, he will keep the Saints' offense closer than +6.5. Without him? Expect a shutout. 

A shutout?!?!?! Hmm. Maybe so, but, if that's the way it's unfolding, maybe Payton will play Grayson some at QB. That should at least be entertaining if only for the possible horror show of a 3rd round QB pick who underwhelmed in training camp. You're right about the absolute lack of chemistry between Brees and the receivers. Cooks was wide, wide open on the Brees INT; it's hard to believe that Brees did not know before hand that his injury had made that throw an impossibility. McCown and Grayson would have both been better on the deep pass; maybe that's reason enough to force Brees to sit this week, because that's the sort of throw which I expect requires more significant recuperation before Brees can pull it off.

 

But there's something about superstar WR Beckham in primetime. :deal: 

I am a Beckham fan -- and not at all (or not just because) he's a home town boy who went to the same high school as the Mannings and Michael S. Pearl. And I am really looking forward to Beckham being on the field at the same time as a pretty-much-in-football-shape Cruz. But, then there's Eli who I don't trust; he's too inconsistent. When he's good, he's great. When he's not good, he'd make an alright back-up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Don Banks from SI likes the following teams:

Titans over Colts, Ravens over Bengals, Browns over Raiders, Squealers over Rams, Dolphins over Bills. :shakehead:

Mike Florio from PFT likes:

Ravens over Bengals, and Browns over Raiders.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

How 'bout them Patriots? More importantly, where is the defense in NOLA? It's that side of the ball that has all the issues.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

Indeed, the Patriots are formidable again. Brady looks 10 years younger. 

As for the Saints, it looks like Brees might not play again. Word has it that his shoulder injury is worse than reported.  :shakehead: 

Anyway, I believe I went 15-2 :cheers:

Edited by The Heretic

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

More importantly, where is the defense in NOLA? It's that side of the ball that has all the issues.

Browner was horrible against Carolina. Not that he was particularly good in the other two games, but against Carolina he was worse. Some folks say that he was overrated inasmuch as the last two years he was opposite Sherman and Revis, but that makes no sense. Being opposite Sherman and Revis means that you should be thrown at much more often so that your coverage weaknesses become plain as day, and, yet, that is not what happened. Sure, Browner is known to get lots of penalties, but his coverage skills have not been as bad as they were against Carolina. Browner said that he was in zone coverage and didn't drop deep enough. Uh, hmmm, that doesn't sound even slightly plausible. It seems more likely that he is simply better at man-to-man when he is right up at the line and can engage the receiver right away. It's also worth noting that Payton questioned the amount of zone that the Saints played against the Panthers. Well, if you didn't like it, then you should have intervened. You're the head coach, dammit!

 

So, why were the Saints running so much zone defense. It could be that the Ryan/Allen duo have no hope with regards to the defensive line - a group which can neither put pressure on the QB nor stop the run (and I stil want to know what it is with Kikaha always diving at the ball carrier's ankles!?!?!). And, furthermore, they don't seem to be able to keep the blockers off of the LBs. So, no d-line translates into terrible LB play, and it's just down hill from there.

 

Lewis and Byrd might get back on the field this week. But Lewis would replace Breaux who has played well after his first NFL foray against Arizona, and Breaux will likely move over to nickel which would, in turn, push the other rookie, Swann, into a backup role. Personally, I'd see whether Breaux would do better than Browner when teamed with Lewis (assuming Lewis really can play after a hip injury), and I'd leave Swann at nickel. As far as Byrd goes, I don't know what benefit he'll bring. The FS in the Saints scheme so far seems to do nothing other than be an eleventh body on the field. No QB pressure results in no takeaways; the Saints do not yet have an interception; ay least I don't recall them having one yet this year.

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now