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2015 NFL Week 7 Picks


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Posted

Despite a few gag jobs by a couple of favored teams, I finished last week with a solid if not spectacular 9-5. Let's hope this is not a regression to the means :finger: Unfortunately, this week promises a snoozefest with another bunch of crappy matchups :boring: 

Game of the Week 

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-9)

The Patriots are undefeated, but they're hurting at tackle. They're down to their fourth string right tackle, & their second string right tackle is now the left tackle. Although the Jets have a legitimate defense capable of slowing down the Patriots offense, their quarterback is Fitzpatrick. And that will be all she wrote. 

New England by 3 

Thursday Game of the Week 

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 40 whiners (+6)

The good news for the Seahawks is that tho they're a dismal 2-4 they've finally figured out how to use Graham right. The bad news is that they no longer have a championship level defense, having proved vulnerable to tight ends over the middle. Although that won't be necessary in this game against an incompetent 40 whiners offense. 

Seattle by 4

 

Rest of the Week 

Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers (-4.5)

Since the Chargers are first in total offense and QB Carr is legitimate, expect an old fashioned wild AFC West shootout. Last team with the ball wins.  Also? The Chargers are entering a 5 game stretch against teams under .500, so if they want to get back into the playoffs, there's no time like the present.

San Diego by 4

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-6)

That was a classic face-plant last Monday night by the Giants, who blew a chance to seize control of the NFC Least. Moreover, they are still smarting over that bitter choke in week one vs these Cowboys, who've backslid for three straight games in a row. And here comes QB Cassel to save the day!  :rofl:

New York by 3

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (-3)

The Eagles are finally looking legitimate, but the Panthers are better than we thought.  They have won nine in a row, dating back to last year, and proved their mettle last week facing a 13 point hole in the fourth quarter at Century Link.

Carolina by 6

Lame of the Week

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5)

Even though the Bills are wracked with injuries (QB Taylor, WR Watkins, DT Williams, etc) they're still favored over the hapless Jags. After all their defense is a cheap date, offering zero resistance against the pass. Then again, the Jaguars are experienced with playing in London. It's home away from home.
Buffalo by 5

 

Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons (NL)

After stabbing their toe last week, the Falcons face a team that's lost four straight and may not have QB Mariota at full health. Moreover the Titans have no ability to catch up once they fall behind. 

Atlanta by 11


New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5) 

Despite reviving themselves for a hated division rival in the Falcons, the Saints are getting no respect in this game. More importantly, QB Luck seems recovered from that early season malaise and should shred the horrendous Saints defense. But honestly? The only thing I really care about in this match up is whether Coach Pagano will try that What the Chuck play. 

Indianapolis by 4

 

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (+3)

The Lions got off the Schneid last week by moving their offensive coordinator to the press box, and ran for the most yards and scored the most points this year. But that won't matter versus a confident team in the Vikings.

Minnesota by 3
 

Pittsburgh Squealers @ Kansas City Chiefs (NL)

All of sudden, the Squealers look legitimate, despite losing Big Ben for a month. Even if he isn't ready to go, they have a better option than QB Vick in Landry. As for the Chiefs? No RB Charles, no OL? No wonder they've mailed in the season. :whatever:

Pittsburgh by 6
 

Cleveland Browns @ St. Louis Rams (-5)

What happens when the unstoppable RB faces the worst run defense in the league? Run, Todd, run. :hugo: 

St. Louis by 6

Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins (-4.5

New coach Campbell has jump-started the Dolphins, and they should steamroll the Texans into the turf - no matter if Coach O'Brien grows a pair and sticks with QB Hoyer. 

Miami by 7

Baltimore Ravens @ Arizona Cardinals (-7.5)

The Ravens have embarrassed themselves and everyone else so far. QB Flacco has stunk it up, but he doesn't have reliable targets of the yesteryear (No Bouldin, no Torrey Smith, and Steve Smith is unavailable). Moreover, the Ravens' defense cannot stop anyone, and now they face an angry Cardinals team still licking their wounds from last week's face plant vs the Squealers.

Arizona by 10 

Shame of the Week 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Ethnic Slur (-4)

Two turnover machines at QB face off against top 10 defenses? Holy. Frijolies. :freakout: I strongly recommend both teams to play in the wildcat formation for the entire game. 

Tampa Bay by 1



Last Week: 9-5

Season to Date: 62-29

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Posted

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5) 

Despite reviving themselves for a hated division rival in the Falcons, the Saints are getting no respect in this game. More importantly, QB Luck seems recovered from that early season malaise and should shred the horrendous Saints defense. But honestly? The only thing I really care about in this match up is whether Coach Pagano will try that What the Chuck play. 

Indianapolis by 4

It looks like the Saints will have Armstead back at left OT. That's good. Also appears that the punter, Morestead will be back. That, too, is good. Unfortunately, Keenan Lewis's hip continues to act up; so, the Saints still do not have their best DBs available all at the same time. Maybe Swann will be back from his concussion. That would help. Lewis and Swann available for the whole game would mean that Browner would not have to be on the field as much; Luck's strategy would likely be to throw to Browner's man as often as possible. Of course, as I've been saying all year, the real problem with the Saints defense is the line. And there does not appear to be a cure for that ailment. Gore should get some good running done in this game. So, unfortunately, it makes sense to think that Indianapolis wins.

 

What is it about the schedule this year that makes contrarian picks nearly impossible!!!!!!! Is it the schedule? Or, is The Heretic getting better at this gig? How to gauge the quality of The Heretic's picks? If he agrees with me, then he's good. Obviously!

 

The only game which immediately seemed ripe for contrarian picking is this one:

 

Shame of the Week 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Ethnic Slur (-4)

Two turnover machines at QB face off against top 10 defenses? Holy. Frijolies. :freakout: I strongly recommend both teams to play in the wildcat formation for the entire game. 

Tampa Bay by 1

Why is it always the shame of the week that most readily finds its way into contrarianland?!?!?! Washington wins because Washington is at home? That's better than saying: Washington wins because this is a contrarian pick.

 

Possible upsets:

 

Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers (-4.5)

Since the Chargers are first in total offense and QB Carr is legitimate, expect an old fashioned wild AFC West shootout. Last team with the ball wins.  Also? The Chargers are entering a 5 game stretch against teams under .500, so if they want to get back into the playoffs, there's no time like the present.

San Diego by 4

I can't go with this one as a contrarian pick, because, although the Raiders have been somewhat better than I expected, I just don't get the sense that Oakland is reliably good enough. Something about that team just doesn't sit right with me. Ever. Still, they are playing the Chargers, and that is reason enough to realize that there is a good possibility that Oakland wins.

 

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-9)

The Patriots are undefeated, but they're hurting at tackle. They're down to their fourth string right tackle, & their second string right tackle is now the left tackle. Although the Jets have a legitimate defense capable of slowing down the Patriots offense, their quarterback is Fitzpatrick. And that will be all she wrote. 

New England by 3 

There's no need to point out that the Jets could very well get a victory over the Pats: Ivory should be able to get over the century mark against the New England defense, and the New York defense is very good. The problem for the Jets is - as noted - Fitzpatrick. But he could surprise.

 

Okay, this is pitiful. Where have the days of the plentiful contrarian picks gone?!?!?! One more. There's got to be one more. Either contrarian or upset-notice worthy.

 

Nope. There isn't. That's where I'll leave it. For now.

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Posted

Speaking of contrarian picks, Don Banks agrees:

Washington Racial Taunt  over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Mike Florio from NBC Sports likes Washington as well. :shakehead:

But he also likes the Cowboys over the Giants. :scratch:

 

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Posted

Unfortunately, Keenan Lewis's hip continues to act up; so, the Saints still do not have their best DBs available all at the same time. Maybe Swann will be back from his concussion. That would help. Lewis and Swann available for the whole game would mean that Browner would not have to be on the field as much; Luck's strategy would likely be to throw to Browner's man as often as possible.

Okay, so it's a sports hernia issue rather than a hip. Whatever. Both Lewis and Swann are out for Sunday's game. I hope that the real starting defensive backfield will get to play together for at least one game this year just to see what they've got and how Ryan uses them.

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Posted

Good news. I've lucked into free tickets for the Chargers-Raiders game today, and will attend with a friend, and we will be tailgating before kickoff at 1pm local time. 

Photos to be posted once I return :cheers:

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Posted (edited)

Partner in NFL crime, on the left. Yours truly, on the right:

12132908_1701548156748872_1780306973_n.j

Pregame:

SD%20vs%20OAK%20pregame.jpg

Kickoff:

SD%20vs%20OAK%20kickoff.jpg

Blowout city:

blowoutcity.jpg

Once the score went up 37-6 by the end of the third quarter, we left. And the Chargers scored 23 straight points. :whatever:

Edited by The Heretic
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