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2015 NFL Week 8 Picks


11 posts in this topic

Posted

The Raiders-Chargers was my first NFL game in years, and the Football Gods were cruel - the Raiders were up 37-6 at the end of the third quarter. Forcing me and my buddy to head for the exit. But of course, the Chargers decided to make the score "respectable" by scoring 23 straight points. :whatever:
 

Onto Week 8!

 

Game of the Week

Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos (+3.5)

Two undefeated teams, led by two Hall of Fame QBs. But only one of them is playing at a high level. Luckily for Manning, he has the best defense in his entire career on his side. Finally. However, will that be enough to offset Manning's own mortality? :scratch:  

Green Bay by 3

 

Thursday Game of the Week

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-7.5)

Since the Dolphins dumped Coach Philbin for Campbell, they've won two straight, both blowouts. Coach Belichick notes that the Dolphins have simplified their offense and defense, which allows them to play faster and more aggressive. Then again, the Patriots are an entirely different animal than the pathetic Texans or the horrible Texans. Moreover, QB Brady has never lost a Thursday night game in his entire career. :finger: 

New England by 6

 

Rest of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-7.5)

After that historic 24 point gag-job last week, the Buccaneers have nowhere else to go but up. They have a shot this Sunday, because the Falcons' offense is struggling, having scored on only 2 out of 10 drives last week. But the crystal ball says WR Jones breaks out of his slump and dominates this Sunday.

Atlanta by 6

 

Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns (+5)

The Cardinals secondary is looking forward to either QB, be it McCown or Johnny Football. They'll cruelly exploit the hopeless Browns, who will self-destruct without the slightest provocation.

Arizona by 10

 

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Now that the Saints have picked themselves up and won twice in a row, they're figuring out how to win without forcing Brees to drop back 50 times a game. RB Ingram had a breakout game against the Colts, gaining 143 yards on 14 carries. In the last two weeks, their special teams was excellent, jump-starting them, and their defense has forced 6 turnovers as well. While WR ODB is back, it will not make a difference. Remember the Giants are consistently inconsistent. :godot: 

New Orleans by 4

 

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (+3)

Believe it or not, the Vikings haven't won in Chicago since the W administration. Luckily, they have a tough rushing defense, physical running game, and ultra-quick receivers. As for the Bears, they're well-coached, but that's about it. :boring: 

Minnesota by 3

 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Squealers (NL)

While Vegas can't commit, it looks like QB Rothlisberger will play, making this game a contender for the Game of the Week honors. It will at least determine who really rules the NFC North for a month or so. However, Rothlisberger isn't a quick cure-all, because the Squealers' defense is pretty substandard. They'll need to be much better against a finely tuned Bengals offense.

Cincinnati by 7

 

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders (+2)

After only 6 games, both teams have surpassed last year's total victories. In last Sunday's humiliation of the Chargers, the Raiders are an impressive team, stocked with young talent. However, they're facing a complete team in the Jets.

New York by 3

 

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (+6.5)

Both teams are horribly flawed. The Cowboys' aspirations have completely derailed, having lost 4 in a row. And the Seahawks are crippled by a substandard offensive line. However, the reason Coach Carroll wasn't panicking with 2-4 record is cuz he at least has a legitimate QB. :deal: 

Seattle by 6

 

Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers (-7)

The Panthers are winning games, despite having no serious receivers. That automatically makes QB Newton an MVP favorite. As for QB Luck, he hasn't recovered from his malaise, struggling with a shitty 76.2 passer rating, having thrown 9 picks. The problem is elsewhere, with a shitty offensive line, and underperforming talent (WR Hilton and CB Davis) and veterans showing their age (RB Gore, WR Johnson, DE Cole).

Carolina by 6

 

Lame of the Week

Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

Yes, that's not a typo. The hobbled Chiefs are 6 points favorites. The Lions are now in freefall, having dumped offensive coordinator Lombardi for some guy named Jim Bob, who unfortunately has zero NFL experience in calling plays. However, the Lions remain more talented than the hopeless Chiefs.

Detroit by 3

 

San Francisco 40 Whiners @ St. Louis Rams (-8.5)

RB Gurley looks like an absolute stud, having run for 433 yards in the last 3 games. Some even claim that he's not completely healthy from that ACL injury. As for the 40 Whiners, QB Kapernick not only has lost confidence, he's also lost the confidence of his teammates. And he's about to face what might be the best defensive line in the entire league. :freakout:

St. Louis by 6

 

San Diego Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens (-3)

Both teams are vying for the most disappointing team title this season. The Ravens always play hard, but they can't finish games, losing every game by a touchdown or less. And the Chargers are softer than Charmin on defense (allow opposing QBs a 103 efficiency rating & give up 5.3 yards per carry). It's a race to the bottom!

Baltimore by 4

 

Shame of the Week

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (NL)

An AFC South matchup? Even Las Vegas has given up on this match. :shakehead: 

Tennessee by 1

 

Last Week: 9-5

Season to Date: 71-30

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Posted

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Now that the Saints have picked themselves up and won twice in a row, they're figuring out how to win without forcing Brees to drop back 50 times a game. RB Ingram had a breakout game against the Colts, gaining 143 yards on 14 carries. In the last two weeks, their special teams was excellent, jump-starting them, and their defense has forced 6 turnovers as well. While WR ODB is back, it will not make a difference. Remember the Giants are consistently inconsistent. :godot: 

New Orleans by 4

The one thing the Giants do well is protect Manning. If the Saints fail to get pressure on the QB the way they have done the last two weeks, then the prime issue regards the Saints' DBs. If Lewis and Swann come back at full strength (and disregarding that a rookie like Swann is very likely to be deleteriously affected by not getting the reps while injured), then the Saints should be in good shape -- especially as long as Ellerbe remains healthy at LB. Ellerbe has been a huge upgrade over Hawthorne and has helped rookie LB Anthony enormously. If Brees avoids throwing more than his apparently necessary one interception, and if that apparently necessary one interception is not a pick-six, then, given the real possibility that the Dome-field advantage is back, New Orleans wins.

 

Let's see what contrarian picks are available this week.

 

Okay, there really aren't any that stand out. So, let's go with an upset pick in order to have a contrarian pick:

 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Squealers (NL)

While Vegas can't commit, it looks like QB Rothlisberger will play, making this game a contender for the Game of the Week honors. It will at least determine who really rules the NFC North for a month or so. However, Rothlisberger isn't a quick cure-all, because the Squealers' defense is pretty substandard. They'll need to be much better against a finely tuned Bengals offense.

Cincinnati by 7

Big Ben is back; the game is in Pittsburgh; it's a division game; the Bengals are too well rested, and Pittsburgh wins.

 

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders (+2)

After only 6 games, both teams have surpassed last year's total victories. In last Sunday's humiliation of the Chargers, the Raiders are an impressive team, stocked with young talent. However, they're facing a complete team in the Jets.

New York by 3

The Raiders are better than I have given them credit for; Fitzpatrick is the Jets' QB; therefore, Oakland wins.

 

Some other comments:

 

Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns (+5)

The Cardinals secondary is looking forward to either QB, be it McCown or Johnny Football. They'll cruelly exploit the hopeless Browns, who will self-destruct without the slightest provocation.

Arizona by 10

If the Cards want to fulfill their potential, then they better find a much, much better red zone offense. That current glaring weakness won't matter this week, but it is a problem to keep in mind going forward.

 

Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

Yes, that's not a typo. The hobbled Chiefs are 6 points favorites. The Lions are now in freefall, having dumped offensive coordinator Lombardi for some guy named Jim Bob, who unfortunately has zero NFL experience in calling plays. However, the Lions remain more talented than the hopeless Chiefs.

Detroit by 3

Without Charles, the Chiefs simply don't have the offensive firepower they need to have a chance at being a good team. The Chiefs have a chance this week because of the questions about Jim Bob. But Lombardi was really doing poorly; so, it's doubtful that Jim Bob will be worse.

 

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (NL)

An AFC South matchup? Even Las Vegas has given up on this match. :shakehead: 

Tennessee by 1

Who cares?!?!?! The only Titans game that matters is next week in New Orleans.

 

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Posted

... the Saints should be in good shape -- especially as long as Ellerbe remains healthy at LB. Ellerbe has been a huge upgrade over Hawthorne and has helped rookie LB Anthony enormously.

From Joel Erickson here: "Payton said today there's some concern that neither [Ellerbe nor Hawthorne] will be able to play against the Giants."

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Posted

... the Saints should be in good shape -- especially as long as Ellerbe remains healthy at LB. Ellerbe has been a huge upgrade over Hawthorne and has helped rookie LB Anthony enormously.

From Joel Erickson here: "Payton said today there's some concern that neither [Ellerbe nor Hawthorne] will be able to play against the Giants."

The most important matchup in this game is between the Giants' passing offense and the Saints' pass defense. While the Saints are indeed dead last in yards per pass, they're gaining ground on other aspects: sack percentage and completion percentage and yards per attempt. Moreover, they're pretty good at getting off the field on third downs. Which is something the Giants aren't that great. 

On the other side of the ball, the Giants' pass rush won't be able to get to Brees. Their pass defense is porous, and we are much better off trusting Brees at home than Eli on the road in a big game. 

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Posted

52-49 !!!???!!!

 

511 yards and 7 TDs for Brees. Pretty nice.

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Posted

I had the game on in the living room while drawing outside, sneaking peeks now and then. It was 42-28 Saints and I turned around for a few minutes, only to see that the Giants surged ahead, 49-42. :freakout: 

Thank Zod the Football Gods weren't cruel this week. :whew: 

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Posted

Aaron Rodgers held to 77 yds passing. That was some unbelievable defense on Denver's part.

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Posted

Aaron Rodgers held to 77 yds passing. That was some unbelievable defense on Denver's part.

By far easily the worst pick I've made this year. My instincts said "Denver" whereas my narrative-addled brain said "Peyton is done" :godot:  

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Posted

By far easily the worst pick I've made this year. My instincts said "Denver" whereas my narrative-addled brain said "Peyton is done" :godot:  

It is interesting how the "Peyton is done" so commonly overwhelmed all the negatives that have been there about the Packers especially but also Rodgers. The Green Bay show has not played all that well on the road for quite some time. Remember Green Bay at New Orleans last year? It is not so much freakish as apparently a part of a pattern. But the "Peyton is done" is about all that our brains notice or at least pay attention to. Still, I have to say: That Denver offense is not aesthetically pleasing. To put that another way: Peyton might not be done, but he's sure not good looking. Or is that looking good? Or is it both? Whatever.

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Posted (edited)

It'll be interesting to see how the Patriots try to account for the Denver defense later in the season. :yup:  Maybe the Giants and Saints could start by realising that football actually involves defense at all? :lol:

Edited by Hugo Holbling
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Posted

52-49 !!!???!!!

 

511 yards and 7 TDs for Brees. Pretty nice.

History has been revised. What had been a Willie Snead 6 yd reception and fumble is now a Brees interception. So, instead of being 40-50, 511 yds, 7 TD, 1 INT, Brees is (was?) now 39-50, 505 yds, 7 TD, 2 INT.

 

Maybe the Giants and Saints could start by realising that football actually involves defense at all? :lol:

 

You should realize that the Saints only gave up their average number of yards per game. Now, I'll have you know, that's defense!!!! I mean it's not like the Saints have the absolutely worst defense. Statistically speaking, I think they came into the game with the 31st ranked defense in yds/game. Regardless, that's precisely where they are now.

 

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