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2015 NFL Week 10 Picks


13 posts in this topic

Posted

Thanks to a number of upsets last week, my picks are finally regressing to the means after a torrid 65-18 start (78% accuracy) after the first two weeks. And the NFL is also regressing to the means: only 5 teams in the AFC have winning records, and two of them are undefeated. :scratch:

 

Game of the Week

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-3)

The Cardinals did beat the Seahawks at CenturyLink in 2013, but that was without QB Palmer, who is having an MVP caliber season. Even though the Cardinals are the better team from top to bottom, it's too hard to pick against the Seahawks at home.

Seattle by 1

 

Thursday Game of the Week

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (-3)

Coach Ryan is up to his old antics - he named the knockout artist LB Enemkpali team captain. Regardless of such taunts, the Jets' defense will be too tough for QB Taylor and the Bills' offense. And it doesn't look like RB McCoy will be any factor.

New York by 6

 

Rest of the Week

Minnesota Vikings @ Oakland Raiders (-3)

If QB Bridgewater does not return from his concussion, the Raiders will steamroll the Vikings with a superior offense. The Purple People Eaters haven't won at Oakland in near two decades.

Conditional: Oakland by 3 if Bridgewater is benched.

 

New England Traitors @ New York Giants (+7.5)

The injury to RB Lewis couldn't have come at a worse time, because the Patriots are facing one of their nemesis in the Giants. However, the Giants are deploying a 31st ranked pass defense against a hypercompetitive QB Brady. After all, they had a true pass rush in those Super Bowl upset victories.

New England by 9

 

Lame of the Week

Carolina Panthers @ Tennessee Titans (+5.5)

Las Vegas casinos have kept the Panthers line low all year long for unknown reasons. The Panthers' defense is totally legitimate, and they have a great QB just entering his prime, and is now in MVP talks. Expect them to beat the Titans by 10 or more.

Carolina by 11

 

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-11.5)

After two tough opponents, the Packers limp back home to the perfect remedy: a cupcake in the toothless Lions.

Green Bay by 10

 

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)

Both teams are loaded with talent, yet both are scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Tampa Bay by 1

 

Chicago Bears @ St. Louis Rams (-7.5)

The Rams have trouble converting third downs lately, but they're a lot tougher at home than on the road. And while the Bears have been in every game lately, 3 points in 5 straight weeks, they won't be able to slow down RB Gurley.

St. Louis by 3

 

New Orleans Saints @ Washington Racial Taunt (+2)

The Saints lead the NFL in total offense, but rank near dead last in total defense. However, they still have the same problems they had during their 1-4 start: crappy pass protection. Luckily for them, the Washington Football Team is destined for another sub- .500 season. Again.

New Orleans by 3

 

 

Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

The Eagles barely snuck by the Cowboys in overtime, but the Dolphins are quickly realizing that they were a bad team before and after Coach Philbin. After the Dolphins got rolled for 256 yards last week, expect RB Murray and Matthews to continue the embarrassment. Best of all, QB Bradford is getting used to the offense, by seeing the field and feeling the pocket better, taking care of the football and improving his accuracy.

Philadelphia by 6

 

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)

QB Johnny Football certainly was electric in the first half last week against the Bengals. Too bad he stunk it up in the second and lost the game. And it won't matter who starts at QB for the Steelers, cuz they have sufficient talent and experience elsewhere to take care of the Browns. Hopefully backup RB Williams' injury won't be too serious.

Pittsburgh by 4

 

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (-6.5)

Despite the stumble in Indianapolis, the Broncos still retain the most feared defense in the league. This game will be over early, and QB Manning will take two records from Brett Favre.

Denver by 6

 

Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals (-11)

Even though the Bengals might be looking past the Texans to Week 11, they'll still win. Even though it'll be a night game, QB Dalton will win.

Cincinnati by 9

 

Shame of the Week

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens (-6)

Although the schedule turns easy for the Ravens, it might be too late in the year to recover just in time for the playoffs. Coach Harbaugh is claiming that they will be the first 2-6 team to do just that. :lol:

Baltimore by 6

 

Last week: 6-6

Season to Date: 87-40

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Posted

New Orleans at Washington

I still maintain that Ellerbe is critically important to whether the Saints have enough defense to help out the offense. I have no idea what Ellerbe's status is for this game. Anthony has played well, but a defense needs to have at least two LBs to be at all effective, and Mauti, Hawthorne, and Dunbar simply have been inadequate as replacements for Ellerbe. Even Humber would have been a better replacement for Ellerbe, but he has also been out with injury. On top of all that is the fact that Lewis still has not been up to full speed, and Byrd has continued to be a joke leaving the Saints to run a defense with basically no free safety. Washington wins because the New Orleans offense cannot be expected to score more than 30 points per game - especially since the defense never gives the offense a short(ened) field. Other contrarian picks and additional comments to follow.

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Posted

Arizona at Seattle

I'll go with Seattle simply because I do not yet believe in the Cards' red zone offense.

 

Jaxville at Baltimore

I'll assume that the week off will be enough to get the Ravens a win. Without that week off, I'm not so sure that Baltimore would be good enough to take advantage of the gifts Bortles would be handing over.

 

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

If Williams is NOT a full go, then the Browns have a prayer. Barely. The Browns are really bad.

 

Minnesota at Oakland

I'll go with Oakland regardless of Bridgewater's status.

 

Not a good week for contrarian picks.

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Posted

I'll take the Cardinals, the Bills and the Raiders; otherwise I concur. I think Brees will torch the Taunt by a lot more than 3, though.

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Posted

Forgot about the Fitzpatrick factor: any team with Fitzpatrick at QB is therefore less likely to win!!!

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Posted (edited)

Well, the Jets were 5-3 before yesterday, and Fitzpatrick played with a fucked up thumb, leading to overcompensation and distraction. Now that the Jets are off for 9 days, Fitz has to have surgery on that thumb ASAP so he won't miss any games.

Edited by The Heretic

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Posted

Ellerbe, Hawthorne, and Humber are out for the Redskins game; so, the ILB situation remains terrible - meaning Washington should game plan for going to their TEs. At least Kikaha will be back, and that might help produce some sort of pass rush.

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Posted

Saints are on course for giving up 800 yards to the Skins. Washington won't end up with that much. Probably. But the Saints defense gets worse with each passing week. No offense can be good enough to win with such a defense.

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Posted (edited)

The Saints have a defense? :angry:

Edited by Hugo Holbling

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Posted

In this bye week, the Saints need to face the fact that Ryan has to go. Something has to change, and the easiest change is the coach. Everyone is to be held accountable. Right? They can let Allen finish the season as d-coordinator to give him a chance to continue in the job next year (assuming Payton returns).

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Posted

The defense is just hopeless. Unless something changes, the Saints can only win shoot-outs in which the opposition can't stop Brees. At this rate, the Panthers will stomp all over them (again) and I will need a Carolina t-shirt for the game. :ph34r: 

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Posted

The defense is just hopeless. Unless something changes, the Saints can only win shoot-outs in which the opposition can't stop Brees. At this rate, the Panthers will stomp all over them (again) and I will need a Carolina t-shirt for the game. :ph34r: 

You will NOT - let me repeat and emphasize that - you will NOT wear a Carolina t-shirt to the game. You might get to wear a bag over your head like the Saints fans did back in '80 I think it was, but you will NOT wear a Carolina t-shirt, and you will NOT wear Carolina blue. Duke blue is acceptable, however, but New England Patriots blue is not. If you simply can't help yourself and want a Carolina t-shirt, fine. But you will NOT wear it to the game or in the French Quarter or anywhere else down here!!!!! Why not wear an All Blacks shirt?

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Posted

According to prognosticators the Saints will shatter the all time record for most touchdowns allowed in a single season.  The current record is 40 by the Denver Broncos in 1963 when they were an AFL team, but the Saints are on pace to allow 45. :freakout:  

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