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2015 NFL Week 11 Picks


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Posted

Holy Frijolies. Another mediocre week in the books. 11 underdogs won last week, totally submarining my picks to smithereens. Hopefully this mid-season malaise is over, and we all can return to winning ways ASAP. :finger:

 

Game of the Week

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (even)

What have we learned about the Packers in recent weeks? They've lost on the road, at home, their defense is exposed, and they cannot even beat the Lions. Nothing is working, everyone is in doldrums. As for the Vikings, RB Peterson will be licking his chops facing that 24th ranked run defense.

Minnesota by 6

 

Thursday Game of the Week

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

Break out the Jags! Even the Jaguars can slip back into AFC South division with a win here. With 3 wins in their last 4 games, their playoff prospects are legitimate.

Jacksonville by 3

 

Rest of the Week

Oakland Raiders @ Detroit Lions (+1.5)

The Raiders are back to their losing ways, having backslid two games in a row. I expect QB Carr to utterly exploit that horrendous Lions secondary. Even though the Lions upset the Packers last week, they're still a bad team.

Oakland by 4

 

Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)

Both teams are rested after bye week, and even though QB Luck is out for 2 weeks plus, they have a great replacement in QB Hasselbeck. However, the Colts only have the 28th ranked passing defense to slow down QB Ryan. The Falcons need to prove that they're legitimate, despite a soft schedule.

Atlanta by 6

 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

Blowing last Monday Night's matchup with the Texans, the Bengals do have a few demons left to exorcise, and they might linger in Arizona. After all, the Cardinals do have a dynamic offense, and the ever-elusive "it" factor that makes them the most stacked in the NFC.

Arizona by 3

 

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-7.5)

Even though the Patriots are without WR Edelman, they'll still have the edge over the Bills at every position.

New England by 4

 

Lame of the Week

St. Louis Rams @ Baltimore Ravens (-1.5)

The Rams are hoping for a jumpstart by benching QB Foles for QB Keenum. But in a matchup with two shitty teams, stick with the home team. After all, the Rams don't have much beyond RB Gurley and the Ravens' run defense is actually solid. Then again, the Ravens are suffering a classic Season from Hell where everything goes wrong.

St. Louis by 3

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

QB Sanchez is starting, and he'll either throw 2 touchdowns or 2 picks, with one pick-six at the worst possible time. Then again? It is too early to start taking the Buccaneers on the road against a playoff-hopeful.

Philadelphia by 5

 

Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears (-1.5)

Classic trap game. Even though QB Manning is benched for backup Osweiler, that doesn't automatically make the Bears favorites to win this match-up. However, the Bears are 3-0 against the AFC West teams this year, and Coach Fox knows plenty about the 24 year old Osweiler, who has never started a game in his career.

Chicago by 1

 

New York Jets @ Houston Texans (+2.5)

What was a hopeful 4-1 start has stumbled into 5-4, and the Jets must scrap to keep their playoff chances alive. They are solid on the road, and if they limit WR Hopkins, they'll beat the Texans easily. The Texans will not have QB Hoyer available, due to a concussion.

New York by 6

 

Washington Ethnic Slurs @ Carolina Panthers (-7.5)

It's amazing that the Panthers have won 13 in a row during the regular season. Unfortunately for Washington, the Slurs are below average on the road.

Carolina by 10

 

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (+3.5)

The Chiefs have managed to pick themselves up from a horrible start, and their defense is playing at a high level now. And the Chargers are heavily decimated on either side of the ball, and have blown the last 5 games, 7 of their last 8.

Kansas City by 6

 

San Francisco 40 Whiners @ Seattle Seahawks (-12.5)

How far have the mighty fallen. Both teams were Super Bowl contenders only two years ago, and now they're stuck in mediocre mud. And yes, that spread is too high, even if it's against the immortal Blaine Gabbert. :roll:

Seattle by 10

 

Shame of the Week

Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins (even)

Romo is back, and all is right with Jerry World.

Dallas by 3

 

Last week: 5-9

Season to Date: 92-49

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Posted

Looks like this week gives me more chances for contrarian picks than have been ordinary this year.

 

Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)

Both teams are rested after bye week, and even though QB Luck is out for 2 weeks plus, they have a great replacement in QB Hasselbeck. However, the Colts only have the 28th ranked passing defense to slow down QB Ryan. The Falcons need to prove that they're legitimate, despite a soft schedule.

Atlanta by 6

I don't know whether the Falcons have succeeded in figuring out during the off week just what it is they've done to freeze what early in the season had been a super hot offense, but I'm going to go with the belief that they've figured out nothing. So, Indianapolis wins. It's not as if the Colts are good, but I enjoy Falcons losses. I admit it.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

QB Sanchez is starting, and he'll either throw 2 touchdowns or 2 picks, with one pick-six at the worst possible time. Then again? It is too early to start taking the Buccaneers on the road against a playoff-hopeful.

Philadelphia by 5

In some strange way, I think the Bucs are better than they realize and better than what they typically show out on the field. The few times I have watched them play I've gotten the feeling that Winston doesn't really grasp what's going on during games, but the Eagles are such a peculiar team - in a bad sense of peculiar - that I expect to see Tampa Bay win. It's almost as if the Bucs seem to have potential whereas the Eagles do not, and it is the sense of the Bucs as pure potential (albeit a potential just about never realized) which always makes a Tampa Bay pick so very iffy.

 

New York Jets @ Houston Texans (+2.5)

What was a hopeful 4-1 start has stumbled into 5-4, and the Jets must scrap to keep their playoff chances alive. They are solid on the road, and if they limit WR Hopkins, they'll beat the Texans easily. The Texans will not have QB Hoyer available, due to a concussion.

New York by 6

It's hard to go with a Houston team that has Yates at QB, but the Texans do seem to have improved their play over the past few weeks. And then there is the Fitzpatrick effect which will - whether directly or indirectly - turn what really should be a Jets victory into the actuality of: Houston wins.

 

Some other thoughts:

 

Oakland Raiders @ Detroit Lions (+1.5)

The Raiders are back to their losing ways, having backslid two games in a row. I expect QB Carr to utterly exploit that horrendous Lions secondary. Even though the Lions upset the Packers last week, they're still a bad team.

Oakland by 4

"Back to their losing ways" well captures the essence of the Raiders. And there I have been over the past few weeks thinking that they really might have finally turned that franchise around. Maybe they need more seasoning. In any event, the Lions are indeed a bad team; if Oakland were not playing such a bad team, I probably would have picked against them simple because of how they've been betraying my own picks.

 

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (even)

What have we learned about the Packers in recent weeks? They've lost on the road, at home, their defense is exposed, and they cannot even beat the Lions. Nothing is working, everyone is in doldrums. As for the Vikings, RB Peterson will be licking his chops facing that 24th ranked run defense.

Minnesota by 6

This game is especially important for the Vikings. Divisional games tend to be the toughest, but the psychological burden is entirely on Minnesota because a loss to the seemingly lost/absent Packers will put the NFC North back in the order which has been expected of it year after year. On the other hand, a Vikings victory this week will seem to have vanquished the Pack for at least this year, even though not for seasons to come.

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